Loudoun Market Update-November 2005

December 9, 2005

All the market data; all right here. "Official" market stats were published yesterday by the various regional associations. We focus on extracting data for Loudoun county for our Snapshots (see sidebar). In addition, we are now picking up data from the Northern Virginia association as well. They publish compact, informative market overviews for the following:

Housing Reports | November 2005 | Single Family Detached Homes

• Fairfax County
• Fauquier County
• Loudoun County
• Prince William County

(Each of the above links will open a 1 page PDF file.)

So, here is what we see (obvious). Sales are still sluggish. It appears the dramatic inventory rise is reversing course. Open the Loudoun PDF file above. I notice a couple of interesting trends:

• Even though sales are now sluggish, we are about on par with 2004 settlements for the year.
• There is a phenominal value shift in price ranges. More at the higher end. Sellers are extracting equity from the rapid rise in prices the last few years. And, there are buyers in significant numbers in the upper ranges.
• The luxury market (over $750,000) shows the most significant rise in activity, over 150% in all categories.
• Sellers below $500,000 are being hit the hardest. Add another dimension to these reports to see what is happening to the condo/townhouse market. [Actually these are available but we are in data overload now. I'll pull these at year end.]

I wish I could put my 3-D chart glasses on and line these monthly reports up to see the month-month changes in the various price ranges. [Actually, I am working on creating a data base with flexible data extraction methods so we can pull the data and trends however we (or you) want to.] So many ideas, so little time.

The most frequent question we get is: "What's it going to look like next spring?" The answer: "I wish we had a crystal ball." Prediction: should see an uptick in activity after the first of the year.

Our advice to sellers has not changed: do whatever is necessary to make your properties show their best. The most pristine homes sell quicker and for more money. See our recommendations at Property Presentation.

Buyers: be selective, be patient and negotiate. You now have the advantage. Might be time to make your move.

Here's the latest from our local association:

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The above table for Loudoun County includes "All Property Types."

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