Loudoun Market Update-February 2006

March 9, 2006

Correction: March 10, 2006 | Thanks to Mark (one of our commenters) for pointing out some differences in our data. We jumped the gun trying to use a different data source than usual and botched it. Corrections are in the sidebar (the comments have explanations). This is a corrected post.

Zeroing in on the final data for February, it appears that average sale price in Loudoun declined 5.2%. Contrary to my previous announcement that home prices dropped 6.6%, the "official" numbers came in flat (see sidebar). Not all the data is in but should be filled out in the next couple of days. We never know the final impact of new construction postings to the MLS as they are often weeks late. In addition, about half of the new construction postings in the MLS in February had 0 days on the market, an indication they are after the sale postings. Another interesting feature is next month looking back at February, there will be more new construction postings.

I extracted the data again this evening and found the following:

	#	Avg Price	DOM
Resales	317	$526,508	70 days
New	56	$745,803	17 days
Total	373	$559,432	62 days

What I don't understand (or maybe I do) is how sold plus new contracts can be less than new listings and the total inventory of actives still declines. The only explanation can be those withdrawn or "off the market" listings that are not reported. Can't sell? Withdraw. What is interesting about how we (the MLS) keep track of things is that if a "temporarily off the market" comes back, on the status is like a new listing. There is wizardry here someplace.

Nonetheless, except for average sales price, the numbers aren't that far off from the data I pull at the end of the month. I need to be more careful about my pronouncements with "unofficial" data. We are only as good as the data that is entered into the MLS (sorry if this sounds like waffling). I will report what I see when I see it and always with qualifications.

So, what does the next few months have in store for us? All I can say is the weather is getting warmer, the birds are nesting and buyers are emerging like crocus (what's this? ). We see more activity by buyers looking at homes the past couple of weeks than we have seen in the last few months.

I think we will have a good spring real estate fling. Just not a hysterical one. Sellers will sell. Buyers will get a good deal. And, the real estate economic machine will keep humming.

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