This is the moment...
August 16, 2006
...every Blogger hopes for. Hitting the nerve that causes readers to become active participants. I guess this is what Web 2.0 (what's this again?) is supposed to be. Lay out the facts and honest opinions and help information hungry people find it and then interact with it. Transparency.I've created quite a frenzy with the Insiders article. The readers of the housing bubble picked it up this morning and my new visitor count is going off the charts (so far my servers are responding). Like throwing a piece of red meat into the lions den. I guess it was stuff that supported their opinions (that I neither agree or disagree with).
This is not a Bubble Blog. I don't forecast doom and gloom. I do comment on what I see happening around me and what the data we extract is telling me and our clients. Remember, a real estate market slowdown is not the end of the world. There are much more important things to worry about on the global stage.
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We buy and sell 20 homes a month in the DC area - including NOVA. Sellers need to have their homes in near perfect condition and price them 5-10% below market and they will sell. The job growth numbers will keep the market from dipping much lower but I expect it to plateau for the next 18-24 months until demand catches up with supply. Please see my blog "Why Has The Real Estate Market Suddenly Softened?" at http://bradchandler.typepad.com/my_weblog/
I've been watching the posted (Listing) numbers in Loudoun County. And it appears the number of homes listed is declining at the rate of about 8-9/units per day. If that declining rate is sustained, we could be looking at 1,000/unit decline from the current 4,300+ by Jan. 2007. If that keeps up throughout the winter, then by April 2007 when the market begins to heat up again, the inventory numbers could be in the 2,500ish range for Loudoun County. And that would put us back into a 50/50 Buyer/Seller market. Anything could change these predictions, like Interest Rates or de-listers re-listing after their winter hibernation. But right now, the numbers suggest that we are at the starting block, heading back to a normal buyer/seller market. And for me, all the more reason to hold tight on lowering my asking price. If not, raise it next year to compesate for inflation.
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made the following comment on August 17, 2006 3:40 PM
Harriet: Fair enough...his reader comments don't necessarily reflect his thinking. Maybe that's because very few of us are telling the real story.
Ben Jones (the housing bubble blog author) is not really a doom n' gloomer. I think he reports the facts well enough.
It is rare to hear "reality" from real estate agents. The only other one I've found like you is a solid-sounding guy named Jim Klinge over in Carlsbad, CA. http://www.bubbleinfo.com
The stuff I read from the local agents at realtytimes is frustrating. So it's nice to read some frank talk for a change.
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