Chad, check out RealCentral VA by my good friend Jim Duncan, the best agent in the the area! He might be able to help.

Me too (Raising hand).

I am in the process of moving to Charlottesville. I wish you would post Albermarle County and Charlottesville City stats as well.

Hmmmmm...a couple of thoughts: I extract raw data from the MLS, exclude new construction and every data point (daily) is an average of the last 30 days. The MLS (MRIS) stats are on calendar months, include new construction and always compares a period (month) to the same month last year. Also, the MLS reports use cleansed data and are not published for 10 days waiting for all the late entries to be completed.

I look at things sequentially. We are just beginning to see the short term price cycles in the Market Watch graphs. Just a few $2,000,000 plus sales can significantly influence the averages as you can see.

If we could slice this by price range and housing type we could see a much clearer picture. Go back to the MRIS stats for September and select Attached/Detached. You will notice that they categorize averages based on number of bedrooms. In the 4 BR+ category (the bulk of single family sales), year over year price declined 17%. The total for all categories is down 14%.

I have a complete data set of all sold properties in Loudoun from 1/1/2006 to current. I just don't have the tools or the time to develop the ad-hoc, user selected statistics that would give us a better picture of what is really happening in the marketplace. It is on my to-do list.

The MRIS stats show that Loudoun average prices have decreased by 14% from August 05 to August 06. (This is about half from reduced listing prices, and about half from greater discounts from the listing price to the actual sale price.) If prices in Loudoun have dropped another 6% in the last 30 days (Sept.), then prices are ALREADY down 20%, at least from August 05, although this seems hard to believe. Also, this would be for sale prices, not including seller contributions to closing costs or other concessions.

John,
Prior to Sept 1st new construction is included in the data inflating average price. On Sept 1st, it was removed. Can't compare today with 35 days ago (notice big drop on Sept 1st).

Actually, if you go back to the Fairfax graph just a little over 30 days, say 35, it looks like almost a 11% decline in price, which seems unbelieveable. Are there any statistical abberations which make this misleading, or is it really that bad?

One more thing...thanks for having morning coffee with me. Also, I approve comments every morning and have to filter out the comment spam. I apologize in advance if I inadvertently delete you.

A couple of comments:
Alby...you're right. A quick check of single family only for Loudoun County shows average price in September at $505,000. Only 45 condo sales at an average price of $298. I wish I had time to dig deeper. Hence, averages will have to suffice. NVAR produces reports on a monthly basis by jurisdiction with reports for single family and Condo/Coops.

Looking at the jump in Loudoun average price today, I discovered that there were 3 sales in the $3 to $4 million range in Loudoun raising the average. Those will be with us for the next 30 days. A few sales like that will keep the averages high.

"Required" points us to an article from USA Today showing Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun among the top 10 in the nation for highest average rents. It would be interesting to see this broken down between apartments, condos, townhouses and detached. Anecdotal evidence from Loudoun shows TH's in the $1,500 to $2,000/month range and detached $2,000/month and up.

Now off to some real work.

Arlington, Fairfax & Loudoun on list of highest median rent in the country

What is the break down Sold Average between Condo, Townhouse, and Single Family House? I have a feeling Condo's and Townhouses are below $500,000 and 4+ Bedroom Single Family Homes are above $500,000.

I've noticed! (Raising hand).

I've been copying and pasting your charts every day into my word processor so I can scroll through them and look at the trend more easily.

I guess we won't have an "inverted" year this year with the fall picking up the slack from the Spring. Don't worry, I am sure that "next Spring 7% is in the bag". Hope Springs eternal.

Yes, all of us who kept tracking your website have noticed that. Thanks for the hard work to present the current market condition. Personally, checking your website has been first thing in the morning (well, unless I happen to be online before 7:10am when the market watch get updated ^_^ )