Egos, Zillow accuracy and more...
November 4, 2006
In the Saturday Washington Post:Ego or Greed: Why homeowners can't bring themselves to lower their price. An interesting article about the psychology of pricing your home in this market. It's about neuroeconomics also known as behavioral economics. An example of "shock" by one homeowner coming to terms with listing her condo at $269,000 instead of the $280,000 she thought it was worth is a bit of a stretch... The article makes some good points and offers good advice to buyers to get what they want through other concessions and let the seller protect their ego on price.
Zillow in the barrel: Accused of overstating accuracy claims and "knowingly" deceiving the public. Let's see now...Zillow gets all its data from county government records based on assessments and recorded sales (deeds) applies some mathematical algorithms to predict market values and presents them to the public as "Zestimates" with ample wiggle room disclaimers. Let's go after the Assessors and Recorders instead. They are the ones supplying the data. What does "opening the door to a variety of deceptive and predatory real estate practices" mean? This sounds like the "I didn't know the coffee was hot" absurdity.
Finally, is a backup generator for your home in your future? There are many instances I wished I had a backup generator to provide basic support when the electrical system was down for an extended period. In the heat of the summer and the bone freezing cold of the winter. I just haven't brought myself to fork over the $5,000 to $10,000 it costs.
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Zillow is prone to the same error caused by lags that most price reporting is subject to. In a falling market sales prices that closed 2 or 3 months ago don't reflect current market value. They reflect the going rate 4 to 6 months ago when the contract was ratified. It is common to see across western Fairfax and all through Loudoun zillow estimates that are 100k above the current asking prices on 600k houses. Zillow needs to get hooked into the MLS so it can adjust its estimates to reflect the rapidly falling asking prices. All in all zillow is still a good tool that provides some prior sales info and satellite photos.
made the following comment on November 7, 2006 5:49 AM
Not so fast..., even Greenspan is saying that the real estate market has a way to go before bottoming out. I still think 20 to 25% price reductions are realistic in some markets. Some more, some less.
made the following comment on November 7, 2006 5:43 AM
I am sure there are an abundance in our industry that feel threatened to some degree by innovators. I am not. Does Zillow "knowingly" deceive consumers? The operative word here is knowingly. I believe they have a long way to go to prove their usefulness to the industry and consumer. I'll use Zillow as another data point for valuations...with a caveat that it may not be any more accurate than an assessment.
I recently tested Zillow on my own home. There basic Zestimate appeared to be in the ball park When I added amenities that the tax record does not contain, the Zestimate went into the stratosphere. Purposely deceiving me? No. Bad algorithms? Yes.
I say consumer beware. Also beware of assessed value and appraisals. They all need to be put into perspective of current market conditions, property location, condition and amenities.
Inventory typically drops into December...sellers market or buyers market...watch the inventory go through the roof again come Springtime and then add the fuel of all those priced to sell new homes (where ego is not an issue), additional investment foreclosures, and ARM reset market dumps, and the prices will definitely see 2004 levels if not back to 2002/2003 levels. Unless there is an accompanying recession (possible) pre-2002 prices are unlikely.
What would you say if a real estate broker blogger wrote that zillow "knowingly deceives" consumers?
made the following comment on November 6, 2006 6:46 PM
Alby, looks like listings are declining at about 300 per month and average sold price is declining at about $30K per month since September 1st. I still think a price rollback to 2004/2005 levels is a reasonable prediction. Time will tell. It is interesting that prices appear to be holding for Fairfax County. Must have something to do with commutes.
A 300 per month decline in inventory will put Loudoun back to a "normal" inventory level of about 1,500 homes for sale in March of next year.
This correction is healthy for the overall market.
Looks like the lack of new listings is helping to drop the total inventory numbers. Bad news for those waiting for further asking price reductions. The clock might have rolled back to 2004 prices, but I wouldn't hold my breath for a rollback to 2000 prices when a Single Family might cost around $300k-$400k in Loudoun Co.
Wow, i wouldnt expect that from a Market like WV, but i have seen simliar offers in my marktet of south florida.
