Alby, Sure it can and is something I have always wanted to do. Unfortunately, I just don't have the time as it is a completely manual process. Sorry...

Can the Daily Loudoun/Fairfax data be broken into Single Family, Townhouse, Condo, with a total unit listing at the end? This would allow folks to gauge the market conditions based on unit type, not just the overall unit market. Prices for Single Family homes might be strong, but a large number of Condos being discounted skews the total unit numbers.

R. - Couldn't agree more. The big builders might be ok. The small boutique builders may go belly up...some already have. What is interesting, after BR they come back with a new name and new line of credit. The people that really get hurt are the ones that have homes started and not finished. Subs get hit hard too.

One local small, custom builder is being investigated for fraud because of the above. He took the money and ran leaving buyers and subs high and dry.

I hope they nail his #$&.

Thanks for putting these new homes stats together. I'm not really sure how accurate their reporting is but if Loudoun only had 12 closings in the last 30 days we are going to see a lot of builders auctioning off entire developments or going broke here soon.

I have been watching Comstock Homes, CHCI lately. They are a local builder and have a lot of condo conversions in the area. They have dropped prices about 25% on some units and they still aren't selling. They have had a couple quarters of consecutive losses and Bank of America filed a notice of default with them a few weeks ago. I don't think they will make it through 2007.

It may seem premature to talk of builders going into BK when just 12 months ago they had record earnings but when you look at their balance sheets most blew all their money on overpriced land and stock buybacks. There will be a cash flow crunch if sales don't pick up a lot next year. Some builders also have some Enronesque accounting practices like off balance sheet partnerships that hide liabilities.

I expect inventory to shoot up in the spring as a lot of the existing homes that were withdrawn from the market come back with lower prices. Advertized new home prices are way above comparable existing home prices. Even with the incentives new home prices aren't appealing after factoring the money spent on repainting and window treatments etc. I think their prices will need to drop an additional 25-30% to become competitive with existing homes and to get rid of all of the inventory overhang. It is going to get really ugly for homebuilders in the next 12 months.