Dissecting Loudoun's Housing Market

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November 12, 2006

Here is a snapshot of how the Loudoun County housing market breaks down by property type. I am providing this at the request of one of my readers. I would like to routinely produce these tables along with trend graphs but just do not have the time as it is a highly manual process.

Now that we have this, so what?
  • The absorption rate for Townhouses and Single Family Detached homes are about the same at 10 to 11% per month.
  • Condo average sold prices are hovering around $300,000 and are selling faster than single family (including Townhouses). This is a bit of a surprise to me since there is a glut of New Condos on the market.
  • On average, Detached Single Family homes are selling in the $600,000 range, Townhouses in the $400,000 range.
  • The overall numbers seem to be consistent with the Daily Market Watch averages.
Caution: This is just one data point. A handful of multimillion dollar single family detached listings can skew the those averages. More can be found at MRIS and NVAR.

Loudoun's Housing Market by Property Type [Nov 12]
Total   Condos  domp  List Price TH  domp  List Price Detached  domp  List Price
Listings   330 92 $304K 853 118 $433K 1,534 141 $723K
Contracts   64 78 $294K 138 112 $408K 200 146 $642K
 
New Activity (in the last 30 days):
Listings   78 21 $304K 178 63 $417K 330 80 $692K
Re-List   11 62 $349K 58 159 $424K 153 154 $682K
Contracts   53 78 $295K 92 120 $398K 146 148 $599K
Sold   30 74 $306K 149 109 $394K 146 117 $624K
Expired   13 127 $284K 65 148 $434K 93 176 $674K
Withdrawn   68 129 $312K 196 128 $433K 298 140 $697K
Absorption Rate 16%/mo   11%/mo   10%/mo
Buyer Intensity -0.75   -0.72   -0.83
 
Current Average Price with SOLD Ratios:
ORIG Price   $324K 93.2%   $415K 93.0%   $662K 91.7%
LIST Price   $306K 98.7%   $394K 98.0%   $624K 97.3%
SOLD Price   $302K ---   $386K ---   $607K ---
domp = days active from original list date
LIST Price = last list price
Absorption Rate = New Contracts / Total Active Listings
New Construction is NOT included.

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Comments

R. Timm made the following comment on November 13, 2006 9:15 AM

Thanks for the stats breakdown. I always thought that the condo market would be hit hardest in a downturn. That was the case back in the early '90s. With condos fairing better than TH or SF this may mean that this slowdown is caused more by actual affordability issues than a purely psychological market sentiment shift.

Or perhaps the buyers of SF homes are more relient on the sale of an existing home. There are still a few first time buyers purchasing condos as prices drop and the buyer gains purchasing power. While the SFH market flounders because as prices drop the buyer who already owns a house is losing equity in their home while the price of their home of choice is falling (approx zero effect on purchasing power).


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