Fairfax County Real Estate Activity November 2006
December 10, 2006
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Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market) Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market) Gray Bars: Balanced Market |
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INVENTORY:
Inventory of homes for sale declined again in November by 1150 homes or 15% to 6,690. Most of the decline was due to new listing down 48% (a decrease of 1041 homes. Net new listings for the month (new listings - new contracts) declined by 702 homes to 353. About 30% of new listings are properties coming back on the market after expiring or being withdrawn.
Home prices have only declined by about 4% from November of 2005, much better than surrounding jurisdictions. It appears prices will hold up for the rest of 2006.
DAYS ON MARKET DOMP:
Average time it takes to sell rose by 6 days from 84 to 90. The Daily Market watch shows this measure continues to rise, 93 days as of December 10th. DOMP may rise a bit more going into the winter season.
SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
This ratio declined again to 92.7%. Buyers are in a "negotiating" position in this market.
NEW CONSTRUCTION (chart not yet available):
As of November 30th, the MLS is reporting 604 homes on the market with only 55 sold for the month, a 9% SOLD to ACTIVE absorption rate. A lot of the excess inventory may be due to Condos being overbuilt and investors trying to flip. Reminder: new construction data in the MLS is very unreliable. More may have sold but we won't know the real number for several months.
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Copy this link (Trackback URL) to track this article.Listed below are links to Blogs that track Fairfax County Real Estate Activity November 2006:
» Fairfax County Real Estate Activity November 2006 from Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide
Inventory of homes for sale declined 15% in November to under 7,000 for the first time in 8 months. Average price is down 4% from the same period last year. Time on the market increased to 90 days. [Read More]
» Fairfax Real Estate Market | June 2006 from Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide
Unsold inventory appears to be leveling, new listings are still outpacing new contracts by almost a 3 to 1 margin. Prices are leveling. [Read More]
Comments
While I cannot speak on any individual home, my knowledge of Lennar is that the problems mentioned in Mish's blog are consistent with what Lennar home owners have experienced in Virginia.
On another note, here is a real estate agent's perspective of Mish's blog (among other things).
If you page down this blog to where it says "Japan vs. S&P Super Composite Homebuilders Index," it shows a 'chart pattern' in the Homebuilders' Index today that is very similar to Japan's Nikkei (NKY) of the 80's, plus (so far, at least) the NKY's crash from 1990-2005.
If the Homebuilder's Index (and the real estate market) continues to follow this chart pattern, a price bottom will be many years away.
Japan's real estate market then, is identical to the U.S., Britain and Australia today. And, Robert Shiller's graph of the U.S. real estate market.
Fairfax Resident,
Thanks for the links. I think I remember one of my readers suggested Calculated Risk some time ago. I visited the sites and found them to be interesting. The econ analysis is a bit over my head and will have to spend more time studying them.
Alarming is an understatement when reading about Lennar. My anecdotal evidence to date is that they had a good reputation. Perhaps it is geographical? One of my selling clients bought a home built by a Lennar subsidiary and seem to be satisfied with it.
Merv,
I see below that you recommended the Calculated Risk blog. A few more good blogs that devote much attention to real estate include Mish's blog, Safehaven and Moneyweek.
Using search terms such as housing bubble, real estate bubble or Lennar Homes, provides many interesting articles on Mish's blog. One interesting conclusion that could easily be drawn from Mish's Lennar (Mike Morgan) articles is run don't walk from Lennar Homes (and all Lennar subsidiaries).
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