Loudoun County Real Estate Activity January 2007

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February 15, 2007

Loudoun Buyer Intensity
Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market)
Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market)
Gray Bars: Balanced Market
[click for more detail]
Market commentary for Loudoun County, Virginia. Headings are links to historical charts.

INVENTORY:
After a sharp decline the past few months, inventory of homes for sale leveled off. Active listings are down only by a small margin to the 2,850 level. New contracts are up about 100 homes. New listings turned up for the month by 400 properties. Inventory absorption rate (new contracts / total active inventory) remains a low 17%, up slightly from December. Actual closings (sold) is down 175 homes or 24% from December but even with November closings. This is due to the surge in closings of new construction in December.

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION:
Average appreciation is up about 1% from January 2005. Price declines reversed the trend in November rising 1%, 2.5% in December and a surprising 8% in January.

DAYS ON MARKET:
Average time it takes to sell is 138 days, up a whopping 37 days from last month. As of today (February 15), days on market for re-sale properties is 142 days (see Loudoun Daily Market Watch).

SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
The "negotiated" ratio rose is down a percentage point 92.5%. Successful sellers that lowered their price are still giving buyers another 7 to 8% during negotiations (plus seller subsidies that are not "officially" reported).

NEW CONSTRUCTION:
As of January 31st, the MLS is reporting 606 new homes on the market with only 37 closed, a dismal 6% absorption rate. These numbers may change as builders are notoriously slow getting their sales posted in the MLS. There are always more for sale and under contract that are not reported. Sales of new construction remains in the doldrums. Huge incentives, price reductions, guaranteed home sale to get sellers to the closing table, and increasing incentives to agents bringing qualified buyers. For buyers: finished basements...sun rooms...closing costs...mortgage payments for the first year.

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