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Fairfax County

• Inventory and listing activity: After reaching a 12 month low of about 4,000 homes on January 1st, inventory for sale rose a bit and remained somewhat flat through the end of February and is on a slow rise again through the first half of March. It now stands at 4,367 properties. Listing activity nearly doubled in the same period through March 15th and continues on a path to higher levels. New listings are currently averaging nearly 1,700 per month. This trend is what we would expect through this period.
• Contracting and selling activity: The good news for the market is reflected in contracting activity rising 75% during the January through mid-March period. This is also reflected in the number of closings (homes sold) delayed 30 days (average time between a ratified contract and settlement).
• Price: After a steep decline in average price through September of last year, the average sold price bottomed and is holding at about $500,000.

Loudoun County

• Inventory and listing activity: Loudoun trends closely follow Fairfax, the absolute numbers are smaller. After reaching a 12 month low of about 1,900 homes on January 1st, inventory for sale rose a bit and remained somewhat flat through the end of February and is on a slow rise again through the first half of March. It now stands at 2,169 properties. Listing activity more than doubled in the same period through March 15th and continues on a path to higher levels. New listings are currently averaging nearly 750 per month.
• Contracting and selling activity: The same good news for the market in Loudoun is reflected in contracting activity also rising 75% during the January through mid-March period.
• Price: Loudoun home prices also declined rapidly through September of last year. Although a bit more erratic than Fairfax, the average sold price appears to have bottomed and is holding at about $470,000.

Prince William County

• Inventory and listing activity: Prince William trends are quite a bit different. After reaching a 12 month low of about 2,600 homes for sale on January 1st, inventory started rising rather sharply and has not leveled off. As of this date, inventory is 3,250. Listing activity more than doubled in the same period through March 15th and continues on a path to higher levels. New listings are currently averaging nearly 1,100 per month.
• Contracting and selling activity: Not so good news in this area. Although contracting activity is picking up, it is slower than the neighboring counties. Contracting activity is up about 52% in the January through mid-March period. This slower pace is reflected in the faster rise in total listings.
• Price: I have to assume Prince William home prices also declined rapidly through September of last year as I didn't start collecting this data until mid-December. Average sold price appears to have bottomed and is holding in the $390,000 to $400,000 range.

Some ask: "Why are we so focused on the daily aspect of data collection and presentation? Daily changes don't tell us anything." And they are right. Daily numbers in themselves don't tell a story. But, the collection of them over time are invaluable to spotting short term trends that might tell us where the housing market is headed.

Here's the madness in it all:

1. We have an early spring. That's good. I like the warmer weather. Forecasting the weather is a tough science and is often wrong. I suspect it will get cold again. Always does.
2. College basketball is in full swing. Forecasting the winners and losers is any one's best guess. There are Cinderella teams that come out of nowhere and surprise us.
3. Forecasting housing market activity is also difficult at best and is very local. The overall local economy has something to do with it and locally, we seem to be holding our own. How will the dramatic increase in foreclosures going to effect us locally? It will have an impact but probably less significant than other depressed areas around the country (see this article).

We will have a spring bounce. How high this ball bounces is any one's guess. What I do know is that the local economy remains relatively strong, interest rates are flat and holding at lower levels than the last half of 2006. The short term trends are positive, buying activity is increasing. Now just might be the right time to be a buyer.

I am a John Wooden, UCLA basketball fan. When will the dynasty return?