Nice Chart. Looks like inventory for Apr2007 has fallen 15% from levels in Apr2006. I doubt the Summer of 2007 will be much better than 2006 the way things are looking. With 3000 units for Apr07 in Loudoun up for sale, with an average around $500,000 per unit, I'm not sure there are enough rich people moving into the county to afford these homes. And I don't think there are enough lower income people moving up from apartments to Condos/TH and TH to Single Family homes to drop this inventory number very much.. If history is any guide, the next Seller Boom Market won't be until 2015-2020. And I think the trigger for Loudoun will be the metro rail extending to Dulles and Ashburn.

Alby, I don't think we have to worry about the Fed raising rates. The economy has slowed to a crawl in the first quarter and unemployment ticket up a tad (although still historically low). A bigger worry of mine is that inflation actually does pick up even as the economy slows (a la 1970s). If inflation kicked up enough to bring 30-year mortgages above 7% the housing industry would be in real trouble. That would close the door on a lot of people trying to refinance out of their teaser rate ARMs. We are already going to see some diminished demand from tightening credit standards this year.

Inventory hasn't surged to the degree that I would have expected for early spring. See this graph that shows that we had a higher nadir in inventory but that inventory growth this spring has been slower than last year:

http://www.virginiamls.com/charts/GraphImages/Loudoun.gif

I don't have any data for how the number of Loudoun contracts compare from this spring compared to last. This year I expect inventory to be somewhat lower overall but sales activity to also be significantly lower. I am starting to see many lender owned single family homes listed in Loudoun. Because real-estate is priced at the margin these lender owner properties may begin to adversely effect prices this summer.

Advertised prices on new construction single family homes are still 20% higher than comparable existing homes. I had expected home builders to be more aggressive in their pricing but it appears from all of the "quick delivery" homes available they are allowing inventory to pile up instead of slashing prices.

Prices might be holding up, but the housing glut in Loudoun means nobody should expect their home to sell any time soon. With the price flatline, this might mean the bottom has been reached. But in terms of the sellers not being able to go lower without falling below even on their property. So unless somebody is forced to move, they are unlikely to sell at a loss. It'll take some time to work through this glut of homes for sale. And if the Fed raises rates to curb inflation, the pain will only get worse.