VW, I don't have a way of doing this conveniently through the MLS using manual searches. It would take a data base programmer with complete access to the MLS data base. The qualifications to get access as an approved vendor/supplier are exorbitant. I couldn't get access even if I wanted to. The unpaid comment was for fun. If there was a convenient way to do this I would do it for you at least once.

Merv,

I completely understand about the unpaid work aspect :-)

(Also, I think my question was a bit off-topic as I tend to skim everything these days.)

The economist Robert Shiller uses same-house sales to guage the housing market rather than "medians" or "averages". I have no end of finding these for my Nova Bubble blog, because we have an extraordinarily transient area, not to mention the speculative buying in '04 and '05.

It would be interesting if someone could comprehensively track these for our area, broken down by zip code. But that truly would be a task for a database programmer.

Vern, R., VW,
I was sure to provoke some comments!

Vern, great resource. Thanks for pointing it out.

R. You are always the analyst. I love the way you dissect this. But, in the end, averages may be distorted, maybe not. I'll pull the distribution charts for all of us data nerds to look at.

VW, I love your questions and observations! I don't get this one. Help me understand. If it causes me more unpaid work, the answer is no, no matter what it is. :>)

Merv,

Do you have a way to access same-house sales quickly from MLS data? Perhaps you could then make your own data charts about % gains or losses from various years. (Similar to S&P/Case-Shiller).

I can only track "asking prices," and you know from my blog that it's easy to find asking prices 10-30% off from 2005 sold prices in Loudoun.

Merv,

Thanks for updating the data on my favorite graph of yours. I would not however be lulled into thinking that the data showing a 9% decline is no big deal. When you look at the huge run-up in prices through 2005 a 9% decline seems almost insignificant. The 9% drop isn't the real story though...

I think much of the price declines are currently being hidden because the quality of the houses being sold is increasing. It is common sense that buyers have the ability to be pickier when the market slows, thus houses with premium lots, floor plans and lots of updates will be selling more than inferior houses. Back in 2004-2005 inventory was so low that even houses backing to a noisy highway with 20 year old appliances and in need of a new roof would sell in record time. Now even the nicest homes in the neighborhood generally go for below asking prices and tax assessment.

I think the tax assessment on the graph is key for providing some insight into the quality of houses that are selling. Unfortunately the tax assessment is imperfect as the reported tax assessment changes from year to year and often fails to account for improvements that go unreported. The tax assessor claims that assessments were flat from 2006-2007 so that should indicate that increasing tax assessments of houses sold is a reflection of higher quality / more desirable houses being sold this year compared to last.

If the tax assessment data were a perfect and objective measure of a homes value one could use the delta between sale price and tax assessment to calculate the change in prices. The YOY change in price in relation to tax assessment would be 30% (22% above in '06 now 8% below in '07). Now I'm not so dense as to believe prices of a quality adjusted basket of homes dropped 30% on average because the tax assessments as reported in MLS are certainly not a perfect indicator of quality from year to year.

I do think examining the price differential between assessments and sale prices will be important for the rest of 2007 and may be the best way to determine price direction. Simply looking at the average sale price is misleading because Loudoun's single family housing is not homogenous. One month most of the sales could have a lot of ramblers way out in the boonies and the next all McMansions in Ashburn. Comparing the average sale prices over those two months would not tell you much. Now if sales prices were 8% below assessment then fell to 10% below assessment that tells you something even if the mix of houses was dramatically different.

I look forward to seeing how this graph continues to progress over the rest of the year. Thanks.

From May 25, 2007 BusinessWeek article:

As for the Washington D.C. SMSA, the site shows that the inventory of unsold homes has risen 11% in the past 28 days, and by roughly 37% since late February, vs. an 18% rise in inventory nationwide. Interestingly, the average asking price -- $587,000 – hasn’t budged. Henderson (who liked me, lived in Washington for a period of his life) can’t explain it, but wonders if that’s a sign that a number of sellers have tapped out their equity and can’t afford to cut prices. Same situation with condos – a 47% rise in listings since February, but little movement in asking prices. (Washingtonians, why is that?) You have to figure the dam’s going to break at some point.

http://tinyurl.com/26havx