Fairfax & Loudoun Q1, 2008 Market Updates
April 15, 2008
Our monthly charts are updated with January through March housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:
Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)
Housing Market Law of Price Gravity
A stronger downward trend on average home prices started in September, 2007. In Loudoun, average price dropped 24% in 7 months and in Fairfax a corresponding 12% drop.
It's Spring, We Must Be Surging
The only surge I see of any significance is in inventory. New listings are out pacing new contracts by a 2:1 margin (New Listing Absorption Rate).
Since I no longer have access to the MLS, I am unable to provide any special data reporting.
We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significantly slower rate than those less than $800,000.
For example, in March there were 13 homes sold in the over $800,000 category from an inventory of 459 properties, or 2.8% absorption. Now, in the markets heyday this price range was pretty healthy and had a definite impact on average price. The luster has rubbed off of these diamonds.
It would be interesting to see how many homes in this category are in foreclosure. Maybe more than we would expect. Those numbers are not even reflected here.
The housing market went up with irrational exuberance and now it must adjust. I have said all along ... "It would not surprise me to see a 25% drop in average price in Loudoun County." Well, I am not surprised.
Good to be back.
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I guess it is a year from your post, It is spring again, and it is a bit better than last year. Some areas, the one that declined significately have been selling very briskly. Our area which has declined about 20% from the top vs 60% in the speculative areas is not booming, but there are sales.
I hope that the affects from the fed's programs keeps us going.
Spring is almost here again and BOY would I love to see these numbers again... Hope all is well.
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Hi
I think it is 100% right and the prices of real estate are very high in this time.
Soooooooooo glad you're back!
Thankyou!
Steve
Welcome back, Merv!
No matter how this all turns out (ouch), it is definitely an interesting ride...
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