October 2005 Article History

There are 13 articles published in October 2005. Here are the first 20:

Agent Incentives: Good or Bad? UNOFFICIAL September Data Operation Home Delivery

Renowned Properties® Bubblettes Don't Blow Your Own Bubble NAR's Forecast Oct 12, 2005 Loudoun Q3 Market Update Loudoun Market Update-September 2005 Very cool idea! Speaking of Mollie Agent or Consultant? Over $1 M Market Snapshot

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category in the History Archives.

October 28, 2005

We were away for a few days doing what we love; developing new and useful tools for our clients via our Website and Blog. The newest development is our RE/MAX Renowned Properties^® portal featuring our most exclusive listings. Sleek, elegant and informative.

Each Renowned Property^® is allocated a dedicated Website to display its distinguishing characteristics and uniqueness. See a preview here.

RE/MAX Renowned Properties^® is an exclusive marketing system for homes valued at more than $750,000 in the Washington D.C. Metro area. Pam and I are proud to be able to offer this discriminating approach for our clients benefit. All of this within our market leading SmartPlan^™ business approach.

This premier issue of Renowned Properties^® features Aponivi Farm in Western Loudoun County. Aponivi Farm will be listed soon!

We also added direct links to the portal on "Easy Links". Tell us what you think. We appreciate your comments and feedback.

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October 20, 2005

Overvaluation now referred to BUBBLETTES!!!!???? Actually a brainy report that may have some merit. Global Insight ranks the D.C. Metro area 50th with a 35% overvaluation. Good bedtime reading!

Overvaluation in Housing Market Becomes More Pervasive During Second Quarter

RISMEDIA, Oct. 17, 2005 — The second-quarter update of the Global Insight/National City Housing Valuation Analysis released today shows the single-family housing market became more overvalued from the first quarter.

Fifty-six of the 299 metropolitan areas studied, accounting for 32 percent of the total single-family housing market, were identified as being at risk of future price declines. This represents a slight increase from 53 metropolitan areas (31 percent of the single-family market) during the first quarter.

"Evidence of bubblettes clearly continues to build," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corporation (NYSE:NCC), "though frothy conditions still account for a minority of the overall housing market..."

The net addition of three metropolitan areas to the list of extremely overvalued markets includes five new listings and two areas that have been dropped. New to the list are Fort Walton Beach, Fla.; Portland and Eugene, Ore.; Edison, N.J. and Bethesda, Md. Except for Fort Walton Beach, where prices advanced at a 6.9 percent annual pace during the quarter, each area among the five new listings posted increases between 21 and 29 percent. The two metro areas that fell off the list of extremely overvalued markets are Boston and Essex, each located in eastern Massachusetts. While prices there continued to rise at a healthy clip, improving fundamentals, such as income and population gains, helped reduce the imbalance.

"We're not surprised by the emergence of extreme overvaluation in what are clearly hot spots for the housing market," stated Philip Hopkins, managing director of U.S. Regional Services at Global Insight. "And the Boston area adjustment illustrates the possibility for orderly corrections, rather than inevitable crashes. Outside the hottest housing markets, some signs of a slowdown in the rate of price growth were evident. The average level of overvaluation declined from 22.7 percent to 19.9 percent, with 171 of the 299 metropolitan areas analyzed showing a decrease in the extent of overvaluation between the first and second quarters."

The Global Insight/National City Housing Valuation Analysis examines the top 299 U.S. real estate markets to determine what home prices should be, controlling for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts. Markets with valuation premiums above 30 percent were deemed at risk for price corrections based on the typical degree of overvaluation that preceded the 63 known local market price declines observed since 1985.

The Global Insight/National City Housing Valuation Analysis is a joint venture that combines a statistical model originally developed at National City Corporation with data largely developed at Global Insight. More information is available at www.globalinsight.com/housingindex or www.nationalcity.com/economics.

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October 15, 2005

The hottest topic in real estate these days is about the housing bubble. Seems the Bubble Bloggers and Bubble Commenters found our commentary. How do we know? There was a HUGE spike in unique visitors to this blog yesterday. Tracking it down, I discovered the reason. A free lance writer in Arizona, Ben Jones, found us and published excerpts of our market comments on his popular blog. Thanks Ben for the instant attention! You are now linked in my BlogRoll.

We are one of the few (or only) agents that provide data and commentary on the real estate market in Loudoun County, Virginia via our blog. Our commentary is based on trends in data, anecdotal evidence picked up from talking to other local agents as well as our own real world observations. We don't sugar coat it.

I recently made the statement that September is "historically" a slow month and that the market "usually picks up" again from October through the end of the year. These are not casual, self serving statements. They are based on historical trend data.

I will gather the data I use and graph them within the next few days for all to see. I will provide my own objective opinion and all our readers can come to their own conclusions. The most common question we get from our clients, prospects, friends and neighbors is: "What's going to happen in the next 3 to 6 months?" Our answer: "We don't know. There is immense negative speculation in the market. But, what we do know is there are still buyers willing to buy. Be more realistic in pricing your property and make it show better than your competition. Be patient. Don't panic. It will sell."

Moderation in the market is a good thing. Supply and demand in any market will drive value. Let the investing speculators go somewhere else so we can get back to normal. Whatever normal is.

One last thought. Don't blow your own BUBBLE.

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October 14, 2005

This just in from the National Association of Realtors® (no Bubble Talk here). These national averages and forecasts are not real meaningful if your current market is showing more than slight braking:

NAR’S Home Sales Forecast Looking Stronger

WASHINGTON (October 12, 2005) – The forecast for home sales has trended up as the year progressed, fueled lately by added demand resulting from the impact of recent hurricanes, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said that at the beginning of the year it was thought that 2005 would be the second best total for both existing- and new-home sales, but by June it was apparent that another record was in the works. "Post-Katrina, our sales projections for this year have moved even higher," Lereah said. "Short-term momentum is very strong, and our Pending Home Sales Index just set a record. In addition to the housing needs of hurricane victims, we may be seeing some ‘fence jumping’ from home buyers who are getting into the market before interests rates move higher."

Existing-home sales are forecast to rise 4.2 percent to 7.07 million in 2005, while new-home sales are expected to increase 7.1 percent to 1.29 million. Total housing starts – single-family and multifamily – should be up 4.5 percent to 2.04 million units this year, the best showing since 1973, and single-family starts are seen at a record of 1.70 million...

"Inflationary pressures – driven by higher energy costs – have become a concern, so we anticipate two more hikes in the fed funds rate by the end of the year. In addition, long-term interest rates also are rising at a faster clip," Lereah said. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is projected to reach 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, and trend up to 6.7 percent by the end of next year.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types is forecast to increase 12.5 percent in 2005 to $208,400, while the median new-home price should rise 3.9 percent to $229,700.

NAR President Al Mansell of Salt Lake City said some easing in home sales is expected in 2006. "The rise in mortgage interest rates is likely to have a slight braking action on the housing market, and the upside of that is it would help to bring the market closer to balance between home buyers and sellers," he said. "As a result, there should be a cooling in the rate of price growth – on balance, the overall market should continue to favor sellers with price appreciation remaining above the high end of historic norms. The investment fundamentals for housing remain solid."

In 2006, NAR expects the median existing-home price to grow by 5.2 percent and the median new-home price to rise 7.1 percent. Historic home-price gains are 1.5 percentage points above the rate of inflation, which is seen at 2.6 percent next year. "Although energy prices are the chief culprit in current inflation concerns, we project oil prices to settle early next year – that would cause inflation to quickly dissipate," Lereah said. The Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 3.5 percent for all of 2005 before easing early next year.

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow by 1.4 percent for 2005. The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is seen at 3.5 percent for all of 2005, with GDP picking up early next year as hurricane rebuilding accelerates. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.2 percent for the next three quarters, then decline to 5.0 percent in the second half of next year.

View Charts (PDF File)

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October 12, 2005

The following charts provide data for home price ranges and include average List Price (Price), average Sold vs. List Price percent (%) and average days on market (DOM). Data was extracted from the regional multiple listing service (MRIS™) and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data presented is intended to provide an overview of a broad range of activity in the stated time period, in the entire county and all detached home types. Individual situations may be different.

Averages shown are for Residential Detached Home Listings sold (closed).

3^rd Quarter Ending September 30, 2005
Loudoun County Market Averages
For Single Family Detached Homes

Price Range	List Price	Orig List	Sale Price	% of List	DOM	# Sold
0-100K	45,000	$45,000	$45,000	100%	4	1
100-200K	$0	$0	$0	%
200-300K	$272,357	$274,500	$270,943	98.70%	11	7
300-400K	$363,119	$374,464	$361,791	96.61%	22	42
400-500K	$462,809	$468,798	$463,988	98.97%	23	183
500-600K	$557,195	$563,360	$555,224	98.55%	28	199
600-700K	$659,823	$668,463	$657,274	98.33%	30	267
700-800K	$755,630	$764,468	$752,592	98.44%	31	190
800-900K	$854,719	$862,776	$846,239	98.08%	31	98
900-1000K	$953,973	$955,695	$944,778	98.86%	34	46
1-1.25M	$1,125,548	$1,123,476	$1,109,250	98.67%	64	46
1.25-1.5M	$1,339,683	$1,357,401	$1,297,385	95.58%	119	27
1.5-2M	$1,845,000	$1,833,800	$1,783,500	97.27%	123	5
2M+	$7,761,875	$7,949,375	$8,725,000	91.11%	147	8
						1119

Prior 2005 quarters...

2^nd Quarter Ending June 30, 2005
Loudoun County Market Averages
For Single Family Detached Homes

Price Range	List Price	Orig List	Sale Price	% of List	DOM	# Sold
0-100K	$99,900	$99,900	$80,000	80.08%	9	1
100-200K	$0	$0	$0	%
200-300K	$277,553	$314,817	$274,381	87.16%	33	11
300-400K	$355,657	$363,601	$356,941	98.17%	21	55
400-500K	$453,233	$455,705	$455,110	99.87%	14	229
500-600K	$553,479	$557,390	$557,022	99.93%	16	243
600-700K	$651,273	$653,611	$653,612	100.00%	17	271
700-800K	$747,553	$751,732	$748,379	99.55%	26	202
800-900K	$847,659	$852,418	$847,086	99.37%	33	105
900-1000K	$957,180	$966,482	$949,629	98.26%	37	47
1-1.25M	$1,174,599	$1,186,682	$1,143,386	96.35%	105	38
1.25-1.5M	$1,391,101	$1,381,497	$1,360,709	98.50%	120	25
1.5-2M	$1,602,100	$1,563,100	$1,553,073	99.36%	199	9
2M+	$3,250,000	$3,350,000	$3,350,000	100.00%	525	3
						1239

1^st Quarter Ending March 31, 2005
Loudoun County Market Averages
For Single Family Detached Homes

Price Range	List Price	Orig List	Sale Price	% of List	DOM	# Sold
0-100K	$0	$0	$0	%
100-200K	$0	$0	$0	%
200-300K	$263,622	$270,789	$269,618	99.57%	19	18
300-400K	$366,841	$368,686	$366,664	99.45%	21	82
400-500K	$453,275	$456,421	$452,592	99.16%	26	128
500-600K	$559,063	$561,761	$559,110	99.53%	37	168
600-700K	$650,215	$654,409	$648,408	99.08%	34	149
700-800K	$751,266	$757,924	$749,833	98.93%	38	82
800-900K	$865,706	$875,391	$856,285	97.82%	61	25
900-1000K	$945,957	$949,594	$932,638	98.21%	42	16
1-1.25M	$1,162,004	$1,183,700	$1,121,259	94.72%	109	23
1.25-1.5M	$1,412,863	$1,450,988	$1,399,125	96.43%	122	8
1.5-2M	$1,639,800	$1,639,800	$1,580,000	96.35%	89	5
2M+	$2,545,000	$2,545,000	$2,022,500	79.47%	115	2
						706

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October 11, 2005

This just in: September market data for Loudoun County. September data is not surprising in many respects. Sold listings are down by 200 from August levels. September 2004 sold listings were down 166 by comparison. Average days on the market went up to 33 days from 28 days last month. Inventory (properties on the market) went up by 512 or nearly 23% which might be the highest increase in history. New listings went up by 281 for the month. We are still selling for 98.26% of the asking price. And, the average sale price dropped 12.8% over August but still up 15% since January.

Our opinion: September is historically a slow month for real estate. We are in a market that still exhibits healthy demand at the lower price levels. This can be seen by the sudden drop in average price without a significant drop in selling to listing price ratio. Active listings for September are up over 100% from Septmeber last year.

Our advice to sellers has not changed: do whatever is necessary to make your properties show their best. The most prestine homes sell quicker and for more money. See our recommendations at Property Presentation.

Buyers: be selective, be patient and negotiate.

2005 Loudoun County Monthly Sales Statistics
Month	Residential Units Sold	Average Sales Price	Median Price	Average Days on Market	Active Listings	New Listings This Month	New Pendings This Month	Average S/P as a Percentage of L/P
January	508	$469,168	$419,900	31	714	439	557	98.69%
February	485	$462,467	$429,000	30	908	720	678	99.15%
March	698	$501,491	$450,500	24	930	1007	808	99.84%
April	760	$525,525	$470,000	23	1259	1298	898	99.67%
May	799	$515,239	$475,900	14	1486	1295	942	100.28%
June	994	$547,057	$491,000	21	1779	1485	802	99.47%
July	788	$550,128	$482,250	22	2067	1395	736	98.97%
August	851	$618,542	$506,100	28	2266	1352	723	99.55%
September	650	$539,920	$485,000	33	2778	1631	546	98.26%
October
November
December
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.   ::    Last Updated on 10/11/2005

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Jim Duncan over at Central VA Real Estate in Charlottesville, VA teamed up with a couple of local wine experts and produced a wine podcast (I like to call it a WineCast) focused on the growth and quality of the Virginia wine industry. Nice touch Jim! Yet another way to market ourselves in a fun and interesting way. Go to CPN to listen. Fun.

Jim's WineCast blog entry can be found at marketing.

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In our last article we referred to Mollie Wasserman as a pioneer of real estate consulting. She is also a pioneer of using the web in her business. She developed a Website long before it became "the thing to do" for real estate agents. She hasn't quit. Look waht I found on a recent visit to her Website: an audio visual presentation for sellers that thoroughly explains the "consulting" business approach and what her clients can expect from her team when engaged. She does a much better job than we do presenting the business approach. Thanks again Mollie for the inspiration! Take a look at www.molliew.com. Look for this image on Mollie's home page. She also has one for buyers.

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October 10, 2005

We started blogging on March 25, 2005 and are gradually increasing our audience. Our blog and business Website are constantly evolving. Our objective is to provide meaningful, straight forward information about this business of real estate with a little fun thrown in. It occurred to us that we have not really explained our business approach and why we do what we do and look the way we look. Well...here goes (Warning! this may be a little tedious):

When Pam and I decided to start our own real estate business we concluded that we did not want to join the herd and compete in what is a "me too" business. Look around. You will find agents all look the same, sound the same, use the same canned materials and are very self promoting. They all talk about their production levels, #1 this, #2 that, integrity, and years of experience. They have glamour photos, a catchy tag line, a template website (or web page) and some sort of personal or brokerage branding. Dont' get me wrong, there are may great agents that have built a significant business using this approach. In recent years, many more are adding price differentiation by offering discounted "commissions". According to their very competitive ads, sellers can choose 5%, 4.5%, 4%, 3.99% and 3.85% full service listings. If we were buying a commodity, why wouldn't we always choose the lowest price? 3.85% looks good to me. The fact is "service" is not a commodity. All of this seems to be very confusing and, in our opinion, not very compelling...

Our journey into this business began in April, 2004. After several months of industry research, looking at hundreds of ads, scores of Websites, reading several real estate success books and dissecting the the real estate transaction we concluded the business was very much like any other service driven business from a delivery and cost standpoint. There are unique rules and laws that govern us but the essential ingredients are the same: create trusting relationships by paying attention to detail, delivering on promises, using technology to inform and gain internal efficiency, keeping clients interests above our own and delivering at a reasonable price that pays us for our time and expense. Real estate is not rocket science.

It was during the research phase of our start-up that we discovered three very important concepts and practices. First, the A. D. Little research report commissioned by the National Association of Realtors® that basically predicted the old business models of "selling" real estate will give way to a concept of "consulting". Next was the discovery of the National Association of Real Estate Consultants that offers education and a passion about "real estate consulting". And last, and perhaps the most important, was the serendipitous discovery of Mollie Wasserman, a real estate agent with Keller Williams in Boston that pioneered the "consulting" concept many years ago. It all started to make sense. The internet provides consumers with a wealth of information making them more knowledgeable. Consumers are demanding more at a value price they can understand. Consumers want a partner in a real estate transaction that is not "selling" them anything. They want experienced, thoughtful guidance.

We put together the business plan, including the philosophical beliefs and value system, tools including appropriate technology, business models that are "value to the consumer" driven and of course, marketing. Our objective is to create a brand the symbolizes all of this and represents to the consumer a symbol of value. Hence Choice³ Realty. It needed to be anything but personal promotion.

By August, 2004 we were off and running. I joined RE/MAX Renaissance because of the business values expressed and because RE/MAX provides the freedom for agents to be creative and very independent. We didn't want a broker to tell us what we could not do. September 1, 2004 Pam left Long and Foster after 5 successful years to join me at RE/MAX.

The response to our approach is phenomenal. Our clients now understand what they are paying for and how much. It's all about fixed vs. variable costs and providing choices (the Choice in our logo). Fixed costs are those services/materials provided in every transaction such as sign post, lock box and MLS entries. Variable costs are those that may be different in every transaction. These include the level and types of marketing required. Some properties require lots of marketing, some don't. Some services are optional such as a seller home warranty, staging and full VisualTour vs. a few photos.

Hence, we provide a flexible service schedule where we customize a plan for buyers and sellers and offer three (there is a ³ in our logo) ways to pay for services; time and expense, fixed fee or commissions. Most clients choose fixed fee. It is also the seller's decision on what to offer cooperating brokers (buyer agents).

It is a win-win for our clients. They only pay for the services they need to meet their objectives. We get paid for our time and expense and provide uncompromising service (have you noticed our tag line is You Choose. You Win!...?). Finally, we refer to ourselves as the Choice³ Realty Group. Our intent is to create a growing business and include other agents who want to do business the way we do. By the way, we refer to ourselves as "advisors" because that is the relationship we build with our clients.

So, there you have it. The evolution of a different business model and how it works. We have an entire section devoted to our business model on our Website at www.choice3realty.com.

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October 7, 2005

Loudoun Conty Properties Over $1,000,000

Base Period August 2005 Trend ↑↓ Sell Buy  ■   Avg Sales Price $1,279,935   ■ ■ ■   YTD Avg Price --%   ■ ■ ■   New Listings 54   ■ ■ ■   Active Listings 158   ■ ■ ■   New Pendings 7   ■ ■ ■   Number Sold 25   ■ ■ ■   Weeks Backlog 21   ■ ■ ■   Days on Market 86   ■ ■ Our Opinion: Not Issued Momentum: Base Line Period

$1,000,000 plus properties September 2005 Trend ↑↓ Sell Buy  ■   Avg Sales Price $1,258,859 ↓ ■ ■ ■   YTD Avg Price --%   ■ ■ ■   New Listings 86 ↑ ■ ■ ■   Active Listings 229 ↑ ■ ■ ■   New Pendings 18 ↑ ■ ■ ■   Number Sold 15 ↓ ■ ■ ■   Weeks Backlog 30 ↑ ■ ■ ■   Days on Market 63 ↓ ■ ■ Our Opinion: Shifting to Buyer Market Momentum: Buyers!

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There was one very high priced property sold in August that skew the average price and days on market. This property was removed from the data. This will be a general problem with presenting data when the overall number of properties in the analysis are relatively small.

Another observation: new home builders are glutting the market with $1 million plus homes in western Loudoun County. This fact will certainly negatively impact the upper end market.

There is no mistaking the trend. We are listing more and selling less. We'll see how it looks in October.

---

Note: Weeks Backlog is calculated by dividing total active listings for the month by the number sold plus pendings and multiplied by 4.3 (average number of weeks in a month).

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As mentioned in my last Market Update article, more sellers and new home builders are offering incentives or "bonuses" over and above stated commissions to agents who bring buyers and write contracts. "What's wrong with this picture?" I ask.

First, it seems to me that my duty to a buyer is to help them find the right home that fits their needs, wants and desires in a price range they can afford. Should I be trying to SELL them something because I can make more money? The answer is "I won't do it"!

Second, sellers or new home builders would attract more buyers by putting that money towards sprucing up the property, lowering the price or reducing closing costs to buyers. My humble opinion.

Finally, all things being equal, if I have a buyer that is interested in equivalent properties and one was offering agent incentives, I would fully disclose that fact and offer to rebate that incentive to the buyer at closing.

The real estate business is a hard business for a high percentage of agents to make a decent living. The question: Are agent incentives good or bad for the buyer and the real estate industry in general?

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Loudoun County, Virginia

We extracted data from the local MLS and performed a quick analysis of the market for September. While the data shows a substantial slowdown in sales and up tick in inventory, the trend is seasonal. September is historically a slow month with buyers finishing vacations and families focused on the new school year. This year seems to be a little deeper than in recent years.

See Market Snapshot in the right sidebar. A word of caution: these are unofficial results. The local MLS will usually publish their analysis by the 10th of the month following the month in question. The trends we show are month-to-month or YTD.

What is not shown here are the number of sellers offering subsidies and agent incentives. Anecdotal evidence indicate buyers are being more demanding and sellers are willing to compromise. We also see this in new home sales where builders are offering incentive packages as well as agent bonuses for bringing buyers that write contracts.

As always, sellers need to realize that the most pristine homes will sell for more and quicker. This is especially true when there is more seller competition.

Another interesting phenomena is price competition among sellers in subdivisions where homes are very similar. The last couple of years buyers were competing on price often offering more than the list price. Today, sellers in some areas are lowering prices to be more competitive.

Our advice for buyers: be selective, there are more homes to choose from and sellers are motivated. For sellers: make your home show better than the competition and set your price right. This may take an investment in such things as sprucing up your landscape and deck, new paint inside and out, new carpet as well as professional staging services. Temper your expectations! You cannot necessarily compare what you might want or get to your neighbors when market conditions were different. If you have owned your property for two years or more, you will still receive a handsome return.

Not sure what you need to do? We are happy to respond to your questions if you post them here or call us (703-431-2145).

I wonder if all the BUBBLE TALK is actually affecting consumer confidence. Nobody wants to buy at the peak and watch values decline. On the other hand, buy for lifestyle and personal need and watch your values rise over the long haul. Real estate is always a good long term investment.

If the past is an indicator of what might happen in the future, the market should start regaining momentum from now through the rest of the year.

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October 2, 2005

Habitat for Humanity launches Operation Home Delivery to help rebuild homes and lives of families left homeless by hurricane Katrina.

Thank you for caring about Habitat for Humanity’s work of helping families left homeless by Hurricane Katrina rebuild their homes and their lives. We invite you to design a personal home page to rally the support of your friends and family for this vital effort. Operation Home Delivery will be one of the largest building projects Habitat for Humanity has ever undertaken. Habitat's great capacity and vast partner network will aid in our response to the enormous affordable housing demand created by Katrina's devastation. But we still must raise the resources for this unprecedented operation. That’s why we need all the helping hands we can find.

A great way to contribute by helping raise funds for this essential relief effort. Go to Operation Home Delivery> for more information.

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