November 2005 Article History

There are 11 articles published in November 2005. Here are the first 20:

UNOFFICIAL October Data

Message To Our Clients This Just In: Client Testimonial Raspberry Falls Home | Leesburg, VA Raspberry Falls Lot | Leesburg, VA Home Builders Sweeten Incentives Builder Desperation? Agent Incentives Loudoun Market Update-October 2005 The Capitol Steps Google Blog Search Western Loudoun 14 Acres | Purcellville, VA

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category in the History Archives.

November 16, 2005

This is an eMail message just sent to our selling clients. We are posting it because it is relevant to all sellers in this time of market uncertainty.

Friends and clients,
This is the first of periodic market updates that we will provide you in this time of market uncertainty.

Attached are market statistics for Fairfax (fx), Loudoun (lo) and Prince William (pw) Counties. You probably heard us talk about the sluggishness as well as reading about it in the local news. It's real. There are more listings available to buyers than any time in recent history. If you don't follow the frequent articles in our blog, you should. We probably do more market research than anyone else and give our opinions in a straightforward, unbiased manner.

What this means:

• Be realistic. Buyers are now buying the best for their money. Either show better for the price or reduce the price. Investing in paint, new carpet and staging when necessary yields a big return on investment. Also, Location, Location, Location are always the top 3 real estate priorities.
• Be flexible. Buyers are being more selective and expect more from sellers in price negotiations and perhaps subsidies for closing costs.
• Be logical: This is market dynamics. What your neighbor sold for last spring or last year has nothing to do with market value today.
• Be professional: Generally, work on your home done by a professional will be worth more in the long run. Buyers will be picky.
• Be patient. We can't know what the future may bring but we do know this:
  • The Washington Metro area economy is among the strongest in the nation. Jobs are being created at a rapid pace.
  • People moving to the area for jobs will need housing.
  • The market was over heated the last few years and it is now moderating to "normal", whatever normal is.
  • First time and "move up" buyers are looking further away from the Beltway because prices tend to be lower and quality of life better.
  • 25% of the homes sold in the last two years were by "investors" buying and flipping. Those that didn't flip soon enough are now stuck. That inventory needs to dissipate.
  • And, all the "real estate bubble" talk is feeding on itself.

Anecdotal evidence:

• Public open houses are drawing few attendees (discussions with other agents).
• A nice property in Waterford priced below appraised value has had 3 showings in 6 weeks (a good friend of ours also in the business).
• According to our broker, town homes have been hit the hardest. These are typically sold to first time buyers who are hesitant to buy into uncertainty.
• A reliable and objective appraiser we know bought a new construction, "to be built" home in an upscale community in and around Leesburg, VA several months ago that the builder is now selling the for tens of thousands less. He can't get out now and he wishes he could.
• Builders and sellers are offering more incentives to buyers and "bonuses" to buyer agents for contracts. Builders are negotiating again after several years of naming their own terms. (By the way, we do NOT advocate agent bonuses. It creates a potential conflict of interest. If we recommend incentives, it is always to the buyer.)

Our marketing:

• Our internet marketing is second to none. We showcase all listings on realtor.com, homesdatabase.com, Yahoo, MSN, washingtonpost.com among others.
• Every property has a VisualTour (75% of buyers look at homes with Visual Tours or those with more than 1 picture first.) Our VisualTours are among the best in the industry. We average over 300 total views per week for all our listed properties. Our properties get exposure.
• Our website and blog get over 1000 unique visitors per month and is growing rapidly.
• If you do a Google Blog search for Virginia Real Estate or Northern Virginia Real Estate, we come up at the very top of the first page. This means exposure for your property.
• Our properties are posted to "craigslist" and soon on Google Base (beta in test now) as well as Google and Yahoo maps.
• We employ more technology than 99.9% of all other agents. To make us more efficient and to get our clients the maximum property exposure.
• We advertise for our own self promotion and at our own expense, primarily in Leesburg Today, Loudoun Business and Elan magazine.
• Our ads stand out above all others in professionalism, size and white (or blank) space.
• Not every property is advertised every week.
• We advertise primarily to drive buyers and prospective clients to our Websites and to your properties.
• When we get buyer calls, they are almost always from something they see on the internet as opposed to print (there are a few exceptions, we have received a few calls from our ads in Elan).
• We will also run ads on specialty Websites when appropriate.
• All of our materials are created toward the discriminating eye of the buyer and their agent.
• We rarely do public open houses. The return on investment is minuscule. That is why we can offer our services at a more reasonable rate than anyone else. You don't have to pay for activity that does not work.

In summary, the heady times are no longer with us. Normal used to be a few days to a couple of weeks on the market to get a ratified contract. Normal is now an average of 45 to 60 days. More for some properties. Pam and I never quit talking and brainstorming on strategies that will help you sell.

We hope this has been helpful. We need to temper our expectations to the reality of the marketplace. We will send the attached reports as they are available. Please call or email if you have questions. Looking forward to the market "upside".

Our very best regards,
Merv and Pam

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From Bob and Linda Tucker

Most of the time we just go about our jobs doing what we do best: serve clients. As frustrating as Real Estate can be, getting a letter like this one makes it all worthwhile:

Bob and Linda Tucker
Reston, VA

November 15, 2005

To whom it may concern:

We wanted to express our great appreciation for all of the work Merv has put in to our House sale. As a business owner, I was struck by the unique approach Merv had for being willing to break out his costs for services. I had never seen an agent take this approach. This flexible business outline is what led me to choose his firm for helping us sell our home.

He has truly shown his colors through the entire process - in his knowledge of real estate, his professionalism, and his incredible attention to detail. During our contract negotiations, Merv patiently helped us 'up the learning curve'. He was the driving force that allowed the deal to continue at each of the stressful moments when we thought the contract may fall through.

Because Merv went the extra mile at every available moment, my wife and I highly recommend using Merv and his firm for any real estate related transaction. We deeply appreciate his assistance in selling our home.

Sincerely,

Bob and Linda Tucker

Bob and Linda: Thanks for the kind words.

Comment on This Just In: Client Testimonial. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Featured Clients

November 15, 2005

Raspberry Falls Custom Home

SOLD

Custom home on 1 acre in Raspberry Falls. Features include spacious master suite with sitting room, gourmet kitchen, breakfast room, two story great room with fireplace, formal living and dining, and a partially finished basement. Surrounded by $1 million plus homes in one of the most desirable communities in Loudoun County. Home to Gary Player designed Raspberry Falls Golf and Hunt Club.

Owners are selling 0.9 acre lot next door too. Ready to build on. May be purchased together. More detail at Gooseberry. Plat, Map and directions. $720,000 | MLS# LO5455019.

Comment on Raspberry Falls Home | Leesburg, VA. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Featured Properties

SOLD Raspberry Falls 0.9 Acre Lot.

Ready to Build. Part Of Raspberry Falls master plan: Section 1B, Lot 22. Plat and site plan available. Health department approved well and septic plan in original master plan. Requires new permits.

Home to Gary Player designed Raspberry Falls Golf and Hunt Club. Surrounded by $1 million plus homes in one of the most desirable communities in Loudoun County.

More detail at Gooseberry, including site plan, listing, tax record and map. SOLD | $390,000 | MLS# LO5445827

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November 11, 2005

Jim Duncan, my Blogging friend at www.realcentralva.com commented on my last post referring to this article in the WSJ. Thanks Jim.

Comment on Home Builders Sweeten Incentives. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate , Commissions , Home Builders , Market Conditions (with charts)

Great News for You: 6% Commission*
Good News for Your Clients: 6 Months Free*

I receive emails from the real estate agent and builder community advertising the homes they are marketing. I received this one (click to view) a couple days ago with the headline above. That's right. 6% commission to me if I can sell one of their homes and 6 months free to home buyers (I assume no mortgage payment). There are three caveats:

• Purchase contract signed by 11/30/2005 and
• Close by 12/31/2005
• Buyer must use their lender

These homes appear to be ready for occupancy. We are seeing lots of incentives to buyers (and agents) everywhere in the region. This one is the most extreme. These homes range from the mid $600's to over $1 million. If you follow our thinking on a regular basis, you know how we feel about agent incentives. We don't think it is right.

So, here's the deal: anyone out there that wants to buy one of these Stanley Martin homes as described and you can meet the time constraints, we will share half, or 3%, of the commission with you as a rebate at closing! Now that is a buyer incentive. You have to call us before you visit Stanley Martin.

Comment on Builder Desperation? Agent Incentives. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate , Commissions , Home Builders , Market Conditions (with charts)

November 9, 2005

This just in: October market data for Loudoun County. October data reflects a continuing shift to a buyers market. Sold listings are down by 124 from September levels. September 2004 sold listings were down 23 by comparison. Average days on the market went up to 42 days from 33 days last month. Inventory (properties on the market) went up by 130 or another 5%. Inventory in Loudoun is the highest in history. New listings went down by 329 for the month. We are still selling for 97.63% of the asking price. And, the average sale price increased 2% over August and still up 17% since January.

Even though we have two more green indicators for sellers, the huge factor is the decline in solds and pendings from last month and the days on market. Prediction: a leveling of expectations. The market is balancing itself from the hysteria of the last two years. Back to normal? Whatever normal is, we are going there.

Our advice to sellers has not changed: do whatever is necessary to make your properties show their best. The most pristine homes sell quicker and for more money. See our recommendations at Property Presentation.

Buyers: be selective, be patient and negotiate. You now have the advantage. Might be time to make your move.

2005 Loudoun County Monthly Sales Statistics
Month	Residential Units Sold	Average Sales Price	Median Price	Average Days on Market	Active Listings	New Listings This Month	New Pendings This Month	Average S/P as a Percentage of L/P
January	508	$469,168	$419,900	31	714	439	557	98.69%
February	485	$462,467	$429,000	30	908	720	678	99.15%
March	698	$501,491	$450,500	24	930	1007	808	99.84%
April	760	$525,525	$470,000	23	1259	1298	898	99.67%
May	799	$515,239	$475,900	14	1486	1295	942	100.28%
June	994	$547,057	$491,000	21	1779	1485	802	99.47%
July	788	$550,128	$482,250	22	2067	1395	736	98.97%
August	851	$618,542	$506,100	28	2266	1352	723	99.55%
September	650	$539,920	$485,000	33	2778	1631	546	98.26%
October	526	$550,974	$480,000	42	2908	1302	529	97.63%
November
December
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.   ::    Last Updated on 11/09/2005

Comment on Loudoun Market Update-October 2005. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

November 7, 2005

The Loudoun Habitat for Humanity presents an evening of great entertainment and political fun with The Capitol Steps. The Steps are a political mainstay in the Washington Region with their musical political satire. What better way to support the local Habitat Affiliate and get an evening of entertainment in return.

The tickets are a modest $35 each and the event is November 25th at the Lansdowne Resort just east of Leesburg, VA starting at 8:00 pm. Make reservations for dinner at Lansdowne then enjoy the political festivities. Bring your Thanksgiving guests.

No doubt the Steps have a lot of current material. I always enjoy the satire focused on Ross Perot, my boss for many years and Ex-Presidential candidate. Many others I am sure: W, DC, DR, CR, BC, HC and BC's Vice President AG to name a few.

If you have never experienced The Capitol Steps, you don't know what you are missing. Order tickets at www.loudounhabitat.org or call 540-751-2244. Download the complete brochure here.

The Loudoun Habitat for Humanity's mission is to "Build affordable homes for deserving families."

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Google is working on a new search engine designed specifically for Weblogs (Blogs). It is currently in Beta testing (this means it may still have some bugs or tweaking to be done before it satisfies the designers that it works as intended). It is found at www.google.com/blogsearch. When I do a search on Virginia Real Estate or Northern Virginia Real Estate, guess who is at the top of the first page? If you answered the "Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide" you would be correct. The recognition for all our work and time put into this is humbling and appreciated. My friend Jim Duncan, real estate blogging from Charlottesville, Virginia also gets top billing in the Virginia Real Estate search.

Why Blog? Blogging is an extremely powerful tool to reach people that a vanilla Website doesn't. It is a way to express our thoughts, opinions and values to a wide (as in global) community. It is not only self expression, it is a constantly evolving advertisement about our business. People that follow our Blog get to know us as real people (not just another real estate agent or agents) that no other medium can provide.

We also blog to promote our clients and their properties. It is value added advertisement that reaches more people than any print advertising can. And, we can track page views in real time.

We inaugurated our Blog on March 25, 2005. Recognition has grown from a few unique visitors a month to over 1,000 unique visitors per month. Our short term goal: 10,000 unique visitors per month. How can we do this? By keeping content current. For example, every time I post an article on the "Bubble", page views triple overnight. Blogging is hard work. It is time consuming. It needs to be thoughtful. It also serves as a creative outlet that can feed on itself. Blogging is simple technology that we use to add value to our business and clients.

A powerful medium when used appropriately can yield real results! Thanks to all the real estate bloggers that found us and are thoughtful to add links to the "Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide."

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November 1, 2005

SOLD | PRICE REDUCED | Offered at $925,000 Aponivi Farm is located in Western Loudoun County equestrian country. An exquisitely built custom home on nearly 14 acres. Three finished levels, 6 bedrooms, 5 1/2 baths, gourmet kitchen, great room with walls of windows and two story ceiling and a 3-car side load garage. A Frank Betz award winning design...The New Britton Model.

Bonus: A separate 3-car detached garage with 10 ft. doors and approximately 1,200 sq. ft. of unfinished space on the second floor. Perfect for an office or studio.

All the details, pictures, map and down loadable brochure with an agent package can be accessed at our exclusive Renowned Properties® Aponivi Farm Website. Or, see the MLS entry here.

Comment on Western Loudoun 14 Acres | Purcellville, VA. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Featured Properties

What we have been waiting for. A quick preliminary peek at the Loudoun residential market. I put the UNOFFICIAL Snapshot in the side bar.

The total sold units dropped like a rock to 383. New pendings are also down substantially. Conversely, new listings and active listings also declined. Average sold price is still up 23% for the year while the average days on market rose to 41 days for sold listings.

What's really interesting is the average sales price rising significantly from last month. This tells me there is more rotation in the middle market with move up buyers and fewer first time buyers. This is consistent with anecdotal evidence showing entry level townhouse activity slowing significantly.

So? Is the bubble bursting? My opinion: no. The Loudoun market is past it's peak and is normalizing. Price appreciation will continue to erode until the fear of buying at the top subsides. We will probably not see double digit year to year price increases as we have the last few years. Supply and demand still drives the market. The regions economy is growing, new jobs are being created at a brisk pace and there is still a shortage of housing inventory across the entire region.

If you have owned a home for more than 2 to 3 years, you still have plenty of appreciation.

Comment on UNOFFICIAL October Data. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News