February 2006 Article History

There are 19 articles published in February 2006. Here are the first 20:

Loudoun Market Update-January 2006 New Real Estate Market Dynamics What's All the BuZZ I Hear? Kaine's Growth/Land Use Proposals Die Zillow: FirZt ImpreZZionZ Governor Kaine Comes to Loudoun County Tax Time | Real Estate Related Deductions Political Shift In Loudoun County? Loudoun County Buyer Intensity January 2006

Marquis Custom Homes in Raspberry Falls The Assessor Strikes Virginia's Nutty Gas Tax Proposal All About Property Market Values Remodeling: Cost vs Value 2005 The Dark Side of Property Appreciation Mid February Loudoun Market Direction Virginia Republicans Say Tax Me NOVA Winter Storm | February 2006 Raspberry Falls Listing Preview

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category in the History Archives.

February 26, 2006

Pam and I attended a Marquis Custom Homes brokers open last Thursday in Raspberry Falls. There are four spec homes available for near immediate occupancy. The models are:

• The Sinclair: Homesite 104, Offered at $1,049,402
• The Sinclair: Homesite 174, Offered at $1,066,077
• The Glenmore: Homesite 176, Offered at $1,195,213
• The Edgewood: Homesite 184, Offered at $1,156,519

All are more than 4,000 square feet of living space on the main floors, have hardwood floors, gourmet kitchens with granite and upgraded cabinets and sun rooms. Ready for spring move-in.

Buyer's benefit: purchase with Pam or I representing you by March 31, 2006 and receive $25,000 off from Marquis and an additional $10,000 to $12,000 commission rebate (depending on model purchased) from us.

It is important to note that the builder's discount and our commission rebate is ONLY available from us if we represent you through a private sales appointment with Marquis and this must be your first visit.

Interested? Call 703-431-2145 and ask for Merv or Pam. We have brochures available. Learn about Raspberry Falls here.

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I haven't talked to anyone that isn't in assessment shock. Loudoun County mailed tax assessments to property owners last week and it seems there may be a storm gathering. According to the County Assessor half the county's residential property owners assessments rose more than 28%! That is after double digit increases the last three years. Even our Board of Supervisors are experiencing "shock and awe." The Leesburg Today reported these figures for our nine supervisors:

Supervisor	Jan 2005	Jan 2006	% Increase
Jim Burton (Blue Ridge)	$644,000	$991,900	54%
Jim Clem (Leesburg)	$420,000	$530,500	26%
Eugene Delgaudio (Sterling)	$236,100	$346,700	47%
Sally Kurtz (Catoctin)	$466,380	$619,600	33%
Stephen Snow (Dulles)	$540,700	$683,800	26%
Mick Stanton (Sugarland Run)	$381,400	$510,600	34%
Bruce Tulloch (Potomac)	$541,800	$689,000	27%
Lori Waters (Broad Run)	$483,900	$642,300	33%
Scott York (At Large)	$418,200	$560,400	34%

To keep the average tax bill from increasing, the board would have to lower the tax rate from $1.04 per $100 to $0.81, according to the news article. The County Administrator has proposed $0.97 with many new school and transportation projects.

There are reports of heavy phone traffic to the assessor's office. Surprised? Not me. Appeals may reach a record this year. It will be interesting to see if any of our board members appeal their assessments.

Comment on The Assessor Strikes. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: In the News , Loudoun County Market News , Opinions , Taxes

February 21, 2006

A proposal attached to one of the transportation funding bills being considered is a higher tax on the wholesale price of fuel (gasoline). Now get this: the proposal will allow consumers (who will ultimately pay for the increase) to save their receipts and twice a year redeem these at a DMV office for a refund of the taxes. Estimates are that only half of us will go to the trouble of doing this. Is this the nuttiest proposal you have ever heard?

How in the &%$#* will anyone be able to administer this? Let alone the DMV that has a hard time serving their current customers. How do you prevent me from printing look alike receipts? What kind of procedures will be mandated that the distributors and retailers implement to administer this? Who pays for the administration (a stupid question)?

Whoever came up with this idea needs immediate psychological attention. And, it might include the entire senate finance committee who recently approved it.

Weird politics to the extreme! Give me a stupid tax break.

PS: I opened a new category called Outrage

Comment on Virginia's Nutty Gas Tax Proposal. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Opinions , Outrage

I am going to make some BOLD statements:

• TAX ASSESSMENTS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• APPRAISALS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• CMA'S HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• ZILLOW ZESTIMATES HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• YOUR NEIGHBORS OPINION HAS NOTHING DO TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• WHAT YOUR NEIGHBORS SOLD FOR 6 MONTHS AGO HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME
• ALL OF THE ABOVE HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME

SUPPLY AND DEMAND HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE MARKET VALUE OF A HOME

Property and homes are commodities, pure and simple. High demand and low supply drives prices higher and the asset becomes more liquid (easier to sell). Low demand and high supply drive prices lower and assets become less liquid (harder to sell). Market value is ultimately determined by what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller willing to take. I hear the following statements from consumers: Well, I can't sell for less than my tax assessment! My home is worth at least my appraised value! My neighbor said... My Mom told me... The one down the street sold for...and my home is better... Zillow says...

Let's take a look at my BOLD statements one at a time...

• Assessments: The tax assessor compiles general data about about home sales in specific areas in a jurisdiction looking back the last year. Yes, the last year. County records are incomplete, contain very little detail and is fraught with error. The assessor has no way to evaluate the quality of a property; condition, how well it is maintained, amenities, or any other qualitative measures. When was the last time an assessor visited your home to determine these things? Never! Markets change and can do so rather quickly. Your assessment has everything to do with generating revenue for the jurisdiction and always lags current market conditions. The average Loudoun County home sales price went up 23% last year. The average assessed value went up a bit more than that. Some individuals more, some less. There was strong market demand the first half of the year. Prices rose rapidly. There has been extremely week demand for the latter part of the year. Demand drives market value. The assessor doesn't have it. If anything, if you believe your assessment is too high, appeal it!



• Appraisals: Appraisers have a little better handle on market value. They visit the property, take measurements, take pictures, note features and amenities, have opinions on quality and condition and are out in the market and have a pretty good idea of what's happening. They see lots of homes. They approach residential value from two perspectives, current cost to build (cost models that take into account lot, size of home and amenities) and comparable properties that have sold (usually in the last six months or so). The are also looking backward. Appraisers have algorithms and formulas for adjusting value based on comparisons of location, lot size, square footage, age, condition and amenities. Banks base their loans to buyers on an appraisal. But again, they are looking backward. A market value appraisal performed for a seller 3 to 6 months ago does not reflect current demand. So, we need to be careful on how we use it, if at all.



• Comparable Market Analysis (CMA): This is the method used by most real estate agents. It is not only a comparison of similar properties that have sold (backwards looking in time), but also a comparison of similar properties currently on the market. We also look at location, condition, size, quality and amenities as well as time on market (an indicator of market condition). Knowledgeable, experienced agents will not provide a specific market value. Instead, they will provide an approximate range of potential value. We will also take into account buying patterns of consumers. For example, wood floors, upgraded cabinets and appliances, granite or stone counter tops, finished basements and home theaters are in strong demand. It is expected in certain price ranges. And, in a buyers market homes that have these features will be the first to sell everything else being equal including price. So, if a home does not have these, a much lower price is what will attract a buyer. Adding these amenities will not necessarily allow you to set your price higher than comparable. Adding these may, in fact, simply allow you to compete with other properties on the market that do have them. Bottom line: CMA's do not set market value...they are just estimates.



• Zillow: New, exciting, cool, presents lots of information. Zillow bases their Zestimates on public records. See Assessments above. End of story for Zillow.



• Neighbors, Family, Friends ET Al: These lovely trusted people have opinions. If they are not real estate agents or appraisers that have not done the necessary homework, they don't have the data. Respect their opinion but don't listen.



• All of the above (except #5): All of these are helpful in estimating market value and we use all of them. We show potential clients how we use each of these to "triangulate" determining the most probable range of value. We use our market data studies, in general, to advise clients on what to expect. In a buyers market, sellers would be advised to set their price lower in the range. In a sellers market, higher in the range. Of course, competitiveness of the property plays a big factor as does the market price range sellers are in. Entry level properties have more potential buyers, high end properties have a significantly smaller pool of potential buyers. Of course, there are other personal factors to consider such as how fast a seller needs to sell for whatever reason.

Sellers are not only competing with other sellers, they are competing with new home builders. In our current market, new home builders are offering huge incentives to buyers to move their inventory. These include all the bells and whistles mentioned above and/or CASH.

The conclusion? Pricing and presentation are everything in attracting buyers. Estimating market value is as much an art as it is a science. Be prepared to be logical and realistic above all else. Our job is to apply the art to the science and help sellers get the highest value that the market will provide.

Here is some other interesting and relevant reading:

Balanced market creates new approach to home selling

Previous listing strategies may backfire in 2006
Monday, February 20, 2006

By Dian Hymer | Inman News

There are plenty of home buyers intent on buying while they can still lock in a relatively low mortgage rate. So, the 2006 housing market should present good opportunities for sellers who understand how to maximize profit in this new, more balanced, selling environment...

The first step is to start thinking like a buyer, not a seller. Although buyers are anxious to buy before rates rise further, they know that the appreciation rate is subsiding.

When the market is rising quickly, buyers are less concerned about overpaying because they're sure they'll recoup the excess payment within a few months because of robust appreciation. This was the psychology of last year's buyer. Now, buyers are much more concerned about value...
Read the whole story here.

And from my favorite Massachusetts agent, Mollie Wasserman, this and other insights from her blog about using information:

What the Internet Can and Cannot Do

It is often said that “the only thing new in the world is the history that you don't know". This saying kept going through my brain last week when a new home valuation web site named Zillow was launched to a lot of buzz. The press, as usual, carted out the same tired (and wrong) prediction that it has made for fifteen years: that home valuation sites like these will put Realtors® out of business or at least greatly reduce our fees.

Actually, over the last dozen years, the opposite has transpired: it doesn’t matter whether you are talking about law, medicine, accounting, mortgage or real estate; the more that the public uses the internet to gather information, the more they turn to professionals before they make major decisions. That’s because there is a huge difference between gathering information and interpreting it.

Over ten years ago, I penned a Real Estate Internet Warning that seems even more relevant today than it did then:

REAL ESTATE INTERNET WARNING© Despite advertising claims to the contrary, the internet is NOT an experienced Real Estate Professional. It cannot consult, counsel, advise, have knowledge of local laws and market conditions, make judgments, "own" the result, or most importantly, understand your individual goals and needs and care about you as a Client. Furthermore, while the internet can provide information, it cannot interpret it. To obtain an accurate assessment of any data you're receiving online, please contact us.

Mollie Wasserman

The rest of the article here.

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February 20, 2006

The National Association of REALTORS® and Remodeling Magazine issued their 2005 Cost vs. Value Report back in December (we are a little slow to catch up). The survey found that the top 4 investments are upgraded kitchen, remodeled bath, new siding and window replacement. Here is an excerpt from the report:

FEATURE: 2005 COST vs. VALUE REPORT

Remodeling's Payoff

The annual report compares construction costs with resale values in 58 markets.

The "Cost vs. Value Report," published each year in conjunction with Remodeling magazine, gives you a city-by-city guide on what various home projects will pay back at resale. This year’s report features data for five more markets than last year* and a new project—a mid-range home office remodel.

...

Since 2002 four projects, reported each year since 2002, have shown the greatest return at resale on a national basis. Two of the projects, siding and windows, reflect the importance consumers place on curb appeal and insulation; the others, a kitchen and a bath project, are consistently high performers in most markets.

The full article can be read here. The print publication has these projects calculated for all 58 major metropolitan areas of the US.

This is timely because we have a few clients considering upgrades as a way to be more competitive when they are ready to go on the market. The key question is: What is the market value without the upgrades versus with them. If there are unrealistic expectations on the first part of this question (current market value) then upgrading won't matter.

In the Northern Virginia market, buyers are consistently looking for bells and whistles in a home, mainly in the kitchen: upgraded cabinets, granite counters and stainless steel (or maybe black) appliances. If you are selling a home in the upper brackets (north of $500,000) without these, it is hard to compete since so many homes built in the last few years had these amenities added during construction. With the inventory of homes for sale at such a high level, you either have the amenities or drastically lower the price to compete. It's a tough call.

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February 18, 2006

Just a few days ago we reported that the county assessor stated that property taxes would increase an average of 28% in Loudoun County. The County Executive just released his budget that calls for a reduction in the property tax rate from $1.04 to $0.97 per $1,000 of assessed value, a 6.7% decrease. We will get a lower tax rate and politicians will beat their chests saying "what good supervisors are we!" (Thank you mister assessor)

My tax assessment notice came today and here is how it breaks out:

• Land: up 41%
• Building: up 14%
• Total: up 20%

Should I feel good that 20% is better than 28%?

We all gloat in the fact that our property has appreciated immensely. Until, of course, we get our tax bill. Assessments look backwards at property value increases. We have had the good times. I can't wait until next year when my valuation and assessment goes back down because of the sluggishness of the real estate market predicted for 2006. I also predict that hell will freeze this year too. Wait 'till Zillow gets hold of this!

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Here's a quick sample of market activity for Loudoun County as of February 18, 2006:

• Total Active:  2,689
• New Listings:    738
• New Contracts: 257
• February Sold: 146
• Average Price: $524,390
• Average Days:   78
• Pulse Index:   -0.81

If we extrapolate these to predict the end of month (10 days remaining):

• Total Active: 3,100 to 3,200
• New Listings:   950 to 1,050
• New Contracts: 325 to 375
• February Sold: 175 to 225
• Pulse Index:   -0.84 to -0.81

Bottom line for sellers: Show condition and price is everything!

Bottom line for buyers: Wide selection. Superior negotiating position. Great deals can be had.

Comment on Mid February Loudoun Market Direction. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

The Virginia Senate (controlled by Republicans) approved a plan Friday to raise $900 million a year for transportation through higher taxes on gasoline and other motor vehicle fees. These include higher sales tax on cars (ouch), higher fines for bad drivers (good!), registration fees based on weight (mmmm...ok) and higher taxes on home sales (outrage!). I admit somebody has to pay but, adding more taxes on home sales is nutty. Guess who will ultimately pay...home buyers. We don't need any more "fees" to pump up home prices any more than what the market dictates. Home prices are already absurdly high. This will hurt those that need affordable housing the most.

The Virginia state government got us into this mess by ignoring the problem for the last 10 years. Now it is a crisis and they turn to our wallets to pay for the fix. How about giving us money back that the Virginia Department of Transportation has wasted the last 10 years! Do we really think Virginia will spend $900 million effectively through a broken bureaucracy?

The REALTOR® associations are lobbying hard against the added tax on home sales. As they should.

The governor, senate and house are headed for a showdown in the weeks to come. I hope they find some common ground and include provisions in any legislation that holds VDOT accountable for wasting any more tax dollars.

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February 12, 2006

It is Sunday, February 12, 2006. Over 12 inches of white fluffy stuff fell to the earth last night. I don't think we are getting any showings today. And, we are not showing. A welcome break to catch up on real estate administration.

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February 11, 2006

Two Raspberry Falls homes coming on the market in the next 30 days. Built by Van Metre Homes on 1.1 acres. Both have 3 finished levels, 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths. See details here. Call 703-431-2146 for more information on these beautiful properties. Ask for Pam!

Raspberry Falls is home to the highly rated, Gary Player designed Raspberry Falls Golf and Hunt Club. More information about the community here.

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February 10, 2006

Predictable but not a pretty sight

Historically, January is a down month after a December rush. Remember, December is affected by a peak in new construction closings. This month looks even worse due to the down market we are in (see Buyer Intensity Data Points in Market Trends).

Each and every indicator is unfavorable to sellers. February isn't going to look much better.

If you are a buyer, now is the time to make your move. Deals available may not get any better than right now. If you are a seller, stay flexible. It is better to get showings and contract activity than no showings at all. We predict the market will firm up again by the end of March/April time frame. It just isn't going to return to the hysteria of the last two years.

Keep in mind the macro-economics of the Metro area; the Federal government appears to be increasing defense and homeland security spending, job growth remains strong, builders are slowing down construction and interest rates, although on the rise, are still historically low (look back 50 years).

Chart data will be updated in the next 24 hours.

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This IS a must read article from Realty Times today:

'Good Deal' Matter of Interpretation

Realty Times | February 10, 2006 by M. Anthony Carr

Everybody's looking for a good deal. Sellers want the highest price possible and buyers want to buy a house below asking price. They both want the same thing -- a good deal. Following years of a sellers market, many consumers are facing a more normalized market across the country. Particularly, in large metropolitan markets, the normalizing of the market has created a wait and see attitude on purchasing or selling real estate.

For the wise investor/home buyer, the cautionary phrase of "wait to buy real estate" should give way to "buy real estate then wait." One of the keys to savvy real estate investing -- whether for personal use or wealth building -- is timing. In a seller's market, every buyer who was serious about getting into a home, knew it was time for bidding up. Getting the best price with the best terms was not a winnable strategy for so many buyer. The name of the game was winning the house.

Read the full article here.

Comment on New Real Estate Market Dynamics. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate

There is Zillow buzz all over the net. Many different reactions. I'd guess equal on both sides of the great/not-so-great evaluation. It just might become the best FSBO site in the universe. But, until they have total MLS access (and even they say it is not practical) I don't think they can reliably get the values right. And, if the FSBO's of the world rely on Zestimates, I think more business is headed our way.

REALTOR.com© may be the closest thing to a national MLS. I would love to help them with valuation models if they would change their mindset away from just "finding homes for sale." There are a Gazillion reasons why this would never happen.

Comment on What's All the BuZZ I Hear?. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate , Market Value , Opinions

One of several bills the governor is pushing would give local government the power to control growth based on adequate transportation. The House of delegates quickly killed it in committee.

His 4 year-$4 Billion revenue raising proposal for transportation was also rejected.

Where are the alternative proposals? I don't see any. An efficient government in action!

Comment on Kaine's Growth/Land Use Proposals Die. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Opinions

February 9, 2006

Enough with the Z's already! All I can say is Zowee! (sorry) Can you believe the data gathering and data base building for this? And then the presentation. An amazing effort by Zillow. My first impressions were immensely positive. Here's a screenshot of the search results page:



Very cool!

Now, lets get under the hood.
First, it appears the data base is built from public records. Not bad, just not reliable. Public records are notoriously fraught with error and incomplete. Even in our area (Loudoun County, Virginia) where Zillow rated the data quality 5 stars, properties I searched only showed tax records from 2003. What happened to 2004 and 2005? The best data from tax records (in addition to the address) are the lot size, assessed value and sold price history when the deed transferred. Information about the features of a home (e.g. bedrooms, finished levels and square footage) are often missing. Although Zillow offers a mechanism to adjust, I found their categories lacking and when applied to one of our real listings, the valuation resulted in an absurdly high value.

Next, the current valuation is computed from history and appreciation trends. This might be good if you are looking at cookie cutter homes in a large subdivision with a lot of activity. Unreliable in areas with low turnover and uniqueness. A good example of this is in a neighborhood consisting of primarily custom homes. Zillow consistently valued older (built 5 to 10 years ago) higher than what they recently appraised and ultimately sold. Here's a snapshot of value trends:



Finally, tax records are not always updated in a timely manner. And, using tax records cannot provide any current information about the state of the market or the current condition of the property. An analysis of MLS records exposes current market conditions. An agents experience and first hand knowledge of a property can adjust the potential value that Zillow will not be able to do. Here's a snapshot of the detail:



Initial conclusions: Zillow gets an A+ for the data gathering effort and presentation. The Website is nicely designed and easy to navigate with simple explanations that are consumer friendly. I give it a D for accuracy on the small sample I took (my current listings). Zillow consistently overvalued (sometimes by more than 10%) our homes. I suspect that since Loudoun was such a hot market for the last 24 months with annual assessments rising 25 to 30% a year, Zillow paints an optimistic picture.

Consumer warning: Go ahead and use it. It is free and easy. Remember, beta means it is still being tested and tweaked. Zillow warns of that. Will I use it? Probably to get another data point. I use three methods to get to value range now. One of them is assessed value and appreciation rates. I tell our clients it is the roughest of all of our analysis, a rule of thumb. Zillow will not replace an experienced agent. I worry consumers will get enamored with the reports and zestimate and make some wrong decisions about listing price, especially when Zillow provides an optimistic value range.

I like it for its amazing build and presentation (I think these things are cool anyway). I'll continue my data analysis approach using MLS data. Priceless. And, not worry Zillow will replace me anytime soon (or ever).

Comment on Zillow: FirZt ImpreZZionZ. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Market Value , Opinions

February 3, 2006

The Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce is holding their annual meeting today at Lansdowne and the keynote speaker is newly elected Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Two of his stated priorities are growth control and transportation. It will be interesting to hear his plans first hand and how they will impact Northern Virginia (Pam and I are attending). Growth and transportation are sticky issues that will require skillful navigation. Stepping on the growth brakes too hard and he might kill the goose laying the golden economic egg. Not doing enough about our transportation problems might have the same effect. Northern Virginia needs careful consideration, a reasoned approach to solving our problems and a centrist, long term set of solutions.

Real estate is a huge contributor to the local economy. I worry when politicians start tinkering with it. The transportation problem simply takes a well thought out plan and lots of money to fix. There is no panacea. The special interest groups will have an influence. The questions are: Where is the money coming from? Who has the greatest influence? (and there is always a link between these two!)

The ultimate question is: Who's special interest will I end up paying for?

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February 1, 2006

We subscribe to Realty Times and every month we have the opportunity to mail or email a monthly newsletter. Normally, we don't find much noteworthy to be broadcasting to our clients, past clients and prospects. Anyone interested in it can view it through the EASY LINKS in the sidebar. This month, there is a particularly timely article about tax deductions provided by home ownership. Specifically, consider this for people who sold a home in 2005:

Top 10 Tax Breaks, On The House

By Broderick Perkins

Selling Costs and Capital Improvements: When you sell your home, you can reduce your taxable capital gain by the amount of your selling costs, which include real estate commissions, title insurance, legal fees, advertising and inspection fees. Cost typically stemming from decorating or repairs -- painting, wallpapering, maintenance, and the like -- are also selling costs if you complete them within 90 days of your sale and with the intention of making the home more saleable.

We are not tax advisors and you should consult with a tax accountant or attorney to determine what might be applicable in your situation. Many of our selling clients spend a considerable amount of money sprucing up the property for the sale. You just might be able to get some of that back!

Read the full article here: Top 10 Tax Breaks.

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We try to stay away from commenting on the politics of the county but recent election results are interesting enough to make a statement. First, our new governor Tim Kaine follows Mark Warner, both democrats. A prominent republican state delegate, Dick Black, lost to a democrat. And now, a special election held yesterday to replace republican state senator Bill Mims went to Mark Herring, also a democrat. The statement being made by county citizens is that we need to put the brakes on accelerating growth, fix our transportation problems and focus on improving education. Turn out was light as 14% of the eligible voters elected Herring with 68% of the votes.

Here is a simple look at the problems our elected officials are facing:

• Adequate transportation is not keeping up with the rapid growth in the county (same is true for all of Northern Virginia). It takes hours at times to get somewhere that should only be minutes.
• New schools are being built at break neck speed because of the population explosion. Loudoun has consistently ranked in the top three counties nationally for growth.
• Average tax assessments have risen by 20 to 25% per year for the past 3 years. County government spending is rising on the order of 17% per year.
• Loudoun County continues a trend of being one of the most affluent and, at the same time, unaffordable to those we need to provide police and fire services and teach our children. Many of these town and county employees live 25 to 50 miles away from the county center in more affordable areas of West Virginia (also experiencing rapid growth and rising home prices because of the demand).
• Growth controls in the western part of the county that is predominately rural has land owners up in arms because government is taking away their appreciation in land values. Their property value may be the only asset remaining in their families.

We are on a collision course with transportation grid lock (already developing) and not enough money to fund badly needed county services and to build new schools for our children. Who got us into this predicament? Our elected officials see sawing to the extremes by special interest groups. I don't know who has the better solutions; democrats or republicans. What this commentator does know is that we need to STOP the extreme views and demand that our elected officials at the state and local level find a central ground that puts us on a corrective course for the next several years. No matter what, I suspect we will be paying higher taxes to pay our way out of it. Government has us by the nose and it is beginning to hurt.

"Here's another fine mess you've gotten me into!" [Oliver Hardy]

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We are renaming the Loudoun County market estimates and "Official" results we do at the end of every month to "Buyer Intensity Data Points." Our estimates are made within 48 hours of the end of the month in question. The "Official" data is usually availble within 10 days of the end of the the month. Our estimated "Pulse" numbers do not include lot and land sales and will generally firm up in a couple more days due to delayed posting of status in the MLS. We also present the Buyer Intensity Index as our measure of market status as introduced and discussed in our previous article.

January is not showing many surprises as it is historically a low activity month. New construction closings dropped way off from the seasonal December high.

Over $1,000,000: There were only 17 homes sold over the MegaMark and seven (7) of those were new construction closings. Removing the new construction sales, the average days on market was 101 days and they generally sold for $150,000 less than the original average asking price of $1,500,000.

Buyers are looking again: Anecdotally, we are getting many more calls on our properties for sale this month than we did in November and December. It remains to be seen if offers start to materialize. This is certainly not panic time. We continue to believe the market is going through an adjustment from one that was overheated from early spring of 2004 through late spring 2005.

The bad news: The county assessor reported the average assessment on property in Loudoun will go up 28% from the previous year! OUCH! I'm not looking forward to my notice.

---

Buyer Intensity Data Points

Loudoun County | Residential (Homes)
January 2006 Estimates		Trend ←↑↓→	Sell	Buy
■   Avg Sales Price	$558,567	↓	■	■
■   YTD Avg Price	--.-%		■	■
■   New Listings	722	↓	■	■
■   Active Listings	2,461	↓	■	■
■   New Pendings	408	↓	■	■
■   Number Sold	329	↓	■	■
■   Weeks Backlog	14.3	↑	■	■
■   Days on Market	61	↑ ↑	■	■
■   % of List Price	95.8%	↓	■	■
■   New Construction Homes Settled	51	↓ ↓	■	■
Buyer Intensity Index : -0.7 Extremely low buyer competition
Market Momentum: Buyers
Price Momentum: Buyers

Buyer Intensity Index is an adaptation of Nate Summer's Marin Market HEAT Index™.

Comment on Loudoun County Buyer Intensity January 2006. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News