June 2006 Article History

There are 17 articles published in June 2006. Here are the first 20:

Anonymous letter from a seller Interesting Dialog Posted in the Rain City Guide What's New in the Guide The Vintner's Pick | June 10, 2006 Blog Spamming and Stamina Exciting Real Estate Search Terms Realty Blogging: The Community

The Vintner's Pick | June 30, 2006 Home sales sluggishness in the news Request from a local Guide reader McMansion Glut...smaller may be getting better Granite Counters? Hummer? Porsche? Loudoun Market Watch Lots of material...so little time About pricing your home Top 5 Reasons Homes Don't Sell What's in a search term?

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category in the History Archives.

June 30, 2006

The weekly wine pick from the Leesburg Vintner.

WINE OF THE WEEK

Here are a pair of Cabernet's from one of Napa's most famous wineries! And...

SATURDAY'S SAMPLING

Please join us Saturday, July 1st from 12-4 for a tasting of wines from the Republic of Moldova. These wines are new in the market place and we are one of the first retailers in the area to carry these wines. You can read more about these wines by clicking here.

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Chateau Monteleña Cabernet Sauvignon
The 2003 Cabernet Sauvignon exhibits a dense ruby/purple color in addition to copious quantities of herbaceous-tinged cassis fruit, full body, ripe tannin, and a soft, plump personality. It will be accessible young, yet age for 10-15 years.

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Chateau Montelena Cabernet Sauvignon Estate
The 2002 Cabernet Sauvignon Estate, one of the most powerful Cabernets the Barretts have made, is reminiscent of the profound 1987. A blend of 99% Cabernet Sauvignon and 1% Cabernet Franc, it tips the scales at 14.3% alcohol. The wine has a sensational nose of sweet creme de cassis liqueur intermixed with notes of beef blood, licorice, and underbrush. Full-bodied and more flamboyant than the more structured, muscular 2001, the 2002 is fleshier with more glycerin and higher alcohol. This chewy effort should be ready for prime-time drinking a few years ahead of the more rigid 2001. Anticipated maturity: 2008-2025.
Have a great weekend. Mike, Peter, Claire

Comment on The Vintner's Pick | June 30, 2006. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fruit of the Vine

A few months ago the majority of headlines from Inman News was about real estate fraud of one form or another. Here are the Inman headlines from a couple days ago:

Riskiest real estate markets in coastal areas
Thirteen markets have more than 50% chance of price declines

'Shifting' economy impacts consumer confidence
Despite improvement, current outlook mixed

Existing-home sales slow in May
Nationwide median price rises 6% from a year ago

Home sales plunge 21% in California
Median prices climbs 8 percent in May

Here's the scoop
New home sales were down in May from April, but well above the rate of sales during the same month a year ago, according to the latest Census Bureau data. The median price of new homes was also down from April, but up from May of last year. Meanwhile, the rate of...

'Wow' factor wins repeat real estate business
Client retention tips leave a lasting impression

Florida home sales fall 24%
Median price, inventory levels continue climb

New-home sales drop 5.9% in May
Prices for new homes eke out gains

Illinois real estate sales lose strength
Condo market keeps up with last year's pace

Overnight real estate rates head higher
30-year fixed rate at 6.38%; 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24%

Read these stories and more at Inman News.

Nine out of ten headlines deal with the state of the real estate market. Fraud in the real estate business isn't going away anytime soon. Devious people will continue to take advantage of the uninformed and under represented. This may be especially true with a downturn in the market. The easy money in this business is gone. The dishonest will find ways to keep generating cash flow. Additionally, consumers are looking for ways to save money on their home sale or purchase and often make poor choices on one of the largest, most complex personal financial transactions. Cutting out experienced, respected real estate agents or real estate attorneys is penny wise and pound foolish.

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June 29, 2006

Here's a note (and a request) I just received from a local reader:

I love the stats you post on your website and the charts giving us a visual idea of the market.

Is it possible to break down the chart into Single Family, Townhomes, and Condos forsale in Loudoun? That 4600+ units is amazing. But I know Single Family homes are much less than that number. About 1/3rd of the total.

Source: http://askmerv.choice3realty.com/

Anthony

PS: I'm also on the market MLS: LO6028972

Great question and I wish I had the time to always do this. OK Anthony, here is the breakdown of active listings in Loudoun County as of one hour ago:

Type	% of Total	# of Listings	DOMP
Single Family Detached	57%	2,640	117
Single Family Townhouse	31%	1,412	81
Condo	10%	475	84
Coop	0%	2	52
All Others (?)	2%	94	--
All Types (Total)	100%	4,623	102

As you can see, Single Family Detached is nearly 60% of the total and are taking longer to sell.

On my to do list is to provide criteria similar to home searches to allow our readers to get stats on just about anything they want.

1) Manually extracting stats from the MLS: Several hours a month
2) Cost to subscribe to the MLS: $660 per year
3) Obtaining an MLS data feed as an agent: Impossible
4) Value of real data to consumers: Priceless!

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June 24, 2006

I opined in the past that part of the housing glut in Loudoun County is due to builder speculation on the demand for McMansions. A REALTOR® friend alerted me to an article on RealEstateJournal.com (WSJ) about a study performed on this subject. After reading it (Loudoun County is mentioned several times) I became curious about the current numbers (how can I resist?). I'll define McMansion on any home priced above $800,000. Here's what I find:

Single Family Detached Homes $800,000 and up
Resale Properties	Number	DOM	Avg Price
Active Listings	486	108	$1,152,000
Under Contract	41	108	$1,104,000
YTD Sold	160	106	$1,068,000
New Construction	Number	DOM	Avg Price
Active Listings	332	213	$1,075,000
Under Contract	14	157	$1,125,000
YTD Sold	109	**	$985,000

The current listing absorption rate for resales is 8% (41/486).
The current listing absorption rate for new construction is 4% (14/332).

One word of caution in the interpretation: Many new home builders don't list in the MLS and only update the MLS after the sale (often not timely).

The total McMansion inventory of 818 homes is about 18% of the total inventory (~4,650) currently on the market (considering the caution on new construction data, it is more likely in the 20-25% range). Also interesting to note is that new construction is selling at about 87% of the average price under contract. This is consistent with the anecdotal evidence in their advertising of "sale" prices and special incentives.

So, perhaps all this points to a real glut in this market range and sellers, even builders, are having a hard time selling their homes. Will the trend continue? I believe it will. The baby boomers (where most of the wealth resides) are downsizing and younger individuals and families just can't afford these any more because of rising interest rates. In fact, we might start seeing more of these dumped on the market as the creative "interest only ARMS" start coming due.

Comment on McMansion Glut...smaller may be getting better. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate , Market Conditions (with charts)

June 23, 2006

Marketing real estate to the extreme. A Hummer in the deal? Do we get an inspection contingency? How many miles? Service records? I think I want granite tops on that dashboard. How about a stainless built-in wine refrigerator? A 50 inch plasma for the kids in the back might be nice.

I really don't care for the Hummer. How about a Porsche? Yes. A red Porsche would be great. How about it? Hmmmmmmmmmmer?

When do we get back to buying a home? Home? Family? Memory creations? Lifestyle? If you lose your home because of the creative mortgages that allow you to buy above your means, you can alwasys live in that Hummer! OK. The Hummer is a better choice. But, will you take a home sale contingency?

I didn't think so. How about I give YOU the Hummer if you will take my home sale contingency?

I'd rather focus on the dreaded BUBBLE! Maybe it's a HUMMER BUBBLE.

I'm sorry, this is getting weird. Only in America. Or is it?

Comment on Granite Counters? Hummer? Porsche?. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate

Loudoun County: Inventory of homes for sale, under contract, sold and housing price trends.

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June 20, 2006

Our society is making my head spin.

(sorry...I don't have links to stuff...just my thoughts)

• NAR blasts consumer groups...go figure...NAR, you're not helping your cause!
• Real Estate Fraud...Geeeez...follow the money.
• The dreaded Bubble...the press continues to feed the hungry.
• Why prices are falling...reality sets in.
• Home builders are desperate...they should be...they over built!
• 30 somethings think real estate is like the stock market...what happened to lifestyle?
• Blogging is catching on...what's next?...templates?
• Homestore or realtor.com (now MOVE.COM, a new name to distant itself from scandals) will sell leads?...give me a break (aka IAP...I already pay!)
• Buyers are getting even...maybe they should.
• One agent per 52 homeowners?...California is always extreme...this IS the epitome of the agent bubble!
• The FED is scaring me...and you...I wish they would just shut up!
• Politics is ugly...always has been...will continue to be.
• Congress not doing anything is a good thing.
• The Virginia legislature not doing anything to solve our transportation problems is a bad thing
• Our children are in sensual overload...they will demand to be in the future...there must be profit in this somewhere.
• Instant gratification is becoming the American Way!...I want the old way.

Teach responsibility...not entitlement.

Your comments are encouraged.

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June 19, 2006

Good article this morning from Inman News:

Price reductions escalate in today's housing market

How to tell if you're asking too much
Read it here.

Comment on About pricing your home. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Buying & Selling Real Estate

June 16, 2006

Good article from Inman News this morning on reasons buyers aren't buying or why sellers are stuck in the mud. Here's an excerpt:

TOP FIVE REASONS SOME HOMES DON'T SELL.
by Robert Bruss

If your house or condo is listed for sale with a successful realty agent in your vicinity, there are five key reasons your home might not sell although nearby comparable residences are selling:

1. THE ASKING PRICE IS TOO HIGH. By far, this is the top reason a home doesn't sell. Although you might be just testing the market, prospective home buyers are very smart and they know an overpriced listing when they see it. Worse, their buyer's agents won't even bother showing homes with asking prices above recent sales prices of comparable nearby homes.

For this reason, if you want to get your home sold during this peak sales season, it is vital for your listing agent to keep you informed on a weekly basis of recent comparable home sales prices. Perhaps it's time for an asking price reduction.

2. THE LISTING AGENT DOESN'T MAKE THE HOME EASY TO SHOW. Well over 50 percent of home sales involve a listing agent and a buyer's agent. If the listing agent makes it difficult to show a home, such as requiring the listing agent be present for all showings, this discourages buyer's agents.

3. CONDITION OF THE HOME. Most home buyers want to purchase a residence in near "model home" condition where all they have to do is turn the key in the front door and move in. However, if the residence requires considerable work, that turns off all but the most die-hard bargain hunting home buyers.

4. "AS IS" HOME SALE CAN BE A RED FLAG TURN-OFF. Closely related to homes that don't show well are those listed for sale in "as is" condition. The term "as is" means the seller offers the residence in its current condition and will not pay for any repairs. However, the seller must still disclose in writing to buyers all known defects, such as a leaky roof or a bad foundation.

5. INEFFECTIVE MARKETING METHODS. In today's home "buyer's market" in most communities, listing agents and do-it-yourself "for sale by owner" home sellers must use every marketing resource available. Most effective is the for sale sign on the front lawn. A close second is weekly newspaper advertising, especially for a weekend open house. In third place is Internet advertising, especially at www.Realtor.com and other Web sites.

Read the full article here.

Not a bad list. I would disagree with #5 to a small degree. I believe that after the MLS the Internet is #1, sign #2, and advertising #3. My opinion based on experience and where inquiries originate on our listings.

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June 13, 2006

I watch our search statistics constantly to ascertain what readers are looking for. It became clear to us last spring that the market was changing. That's when we started providing data to help our readers understand the overall direction in our local area. By the end of the year we translated data into graphics that showed trends over a long period of time. History helps put into perspective current conditions. We quickly discovered the data we presented was not readily available to the general public and, more importantly, real estate consumers. The more we provided, the more search terms popped up looking for market data.

So? By watching search terms directing people to our blog, we get a better idea of what information consumers want and need. The following is a snapshot of the top search terms directing people to the Guide (listed by page views, visit length and visits):

Top 20 search terms by "Page Views":
55% Organic links (not referred from a search engine)
45% Referred by search engine

• northern virginia real estate blog
• housing bubble in loudoun
• loudoun housing bubble
• the grail castle in virginia (not one of my listings)
• raspberry falls (our neighborhood, have listings here and another one of our websites)
• lovettsville town center (unique new community)
• merv forney (that's me)
• northern virginia land bubble june 2006
• northern va real estate blog
• median prices 2005 virginia real estate
• building costs northern virginia
• northern virginia real estate guide
• fairfax county housing market
• loudon county, virginia (it's L O U D O U N)
• new construction specials incentives, northern virginia
• northern virginia real estate investor
• craigslist northern virginia ( I post listings here)
• resale loudoun april 2006
• real estate trends northern virginia
• real estate northern virginia market trends

Top 5 unusual terms that find the Guide:

• heather (from an article I posted about our trip to Scotland last year)
• realtor in bikini (a Florida agent named Wendy Heath created controversy from her billboard ad)
• naked realtor (I get a kick out of unusual signs, I have one posted called "no smoking or naked lights")
• smoking naked (ditto #3)
• tony's auto service northern virginia (Tony is mentioned in an article about the local Habitat, Northern Virginia needs no explanation)

By Visit Length (56% organic and 44% search related):

• northern virginia real estate blog
• loudon county, virginia (it's Loudoun...L O U D O U N, you found us anyway)
• housing bubble northern virginia
• housing bubble in loudoun
• merv forney
• northern virginia real estate guide
• housing trends northern virginia
• fairfax county building code f...shed basements without permits
• raspberry falls
• loudoun housing bubble
• open homes in alexandria va
• northern virginia real estate bubble 2006
• washington metro investors market conditions
• analyze northern va housing market
• "northern virginia" "real estate"
• northern va real estate blog
• median age range of northern virginia real estate agents (this one is interesting)
• loudoun county slowing growth down? (that's an easy one: yes or no depending on one's politics)
• richmond virginia home prices market conditions 2006 may (I wish I could easily get this data)
• nvr contingency home sale (NVR is a local builder)

By Visits (54% organic and 46% search related):

• lovettsville town center
• northern virginia real estate blog
• merv forney
• construction disasters
• raspberry falls
• craigslist northern virginia
• scottish heather
• fairfax county building code f...shed basements without permits
• raspberry falls virginia
• askmerv
• parrotheads (of Jimmy Buffet fame and one of our signs)
• sterling va
• realtor
• potomac crossing
• northern virginia wine festival
• northern virginia real estate trends
• northern va real estate blog
• brokers open
• virginia real estate trends
• virginia real estate blogs

Maybe only interesting to me. Important because this is the way you directly or indirectly tell us what you want.

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I received this email from an anonymous reader on the frustrations of selling a home in the current market. Published here by permission. An interesting perspective and some good points:

Dear Buyers and Sellers,

I would like to share some of my observations and thoughts about the current conditions in the real estate market:

1) The real estate market took an abrupt turn last summer.
2) Buyers went through hell in 2004 through spring of 2005 in the "seller's market".
3) Many if not most current sellers are still over-priced.
4) Real estate prices will continue to drop (some).
5) The cost of housing became (and still is) outrageous.
6) The market is scary and a bit crazy right now.
7) There is nothing normal about the last two years and this current market.

But who is making it like this? US. BOTH Buyers and Sellers! And the media. Can we all get a little less emotional (I am trying very hard to contain mine) and a bit more serious? There are sellers who have significantly lowered their prices and need to move. Buyers... get out there and find the bargains! That is what a "BUYERS" market means. Then write a realistic contract!

Buyers and Sellers seem to be stuck at an impasse which is no less crazy than last spring. The pendulum just went in the complete opposite direction. Does that sound like typical market behavior that is based on actual economics OR overly reactionary media and consumers to all the BUBBLE talk? Don’t listen to the media. If you want to buy or sell, and are serious...make it happen.

SELLERS:
Sellers are still priced too high. Unless you low ball your property, your just going to sit anyway. If you get an offer that is within the range of your asking price… TAKE IT, you may not get another. Do not bother to put your house on the market unless it is in mint condition OR adjust your price lower. Do not list your property just to "see" what you might get. You will be disappointed and you are wasting people's time. The frenzied days of price appreciation are OVER... get over it and work within THIS market. Enjoy the equity that you have. The number one rule for a seller is: don’t be greedy!

BUYERS:
Buyers need to learn a new term... "bridge loan." You cannot expect to sell your property in this market within a time frame a seller is willing to wait for you. Home sale contingent contracts are typically unacceptable to a seller AND a buyer because it precludes you (the buyer) from accepting a contingent contract on what you are trying to sell. Otherwise, it is an endless chain of contingencies. A bridge loan or other form a financing will carry you through the time it takes to sell your home.

If you have to sell your home to buy another one, understand what your home is worth in this market. Do not assume you will get a certain amount of equity and do not waste seller's time looking at houses that are out of your price range. If you absolutely cannot "risk" having a bridge loan... ask the seller to help out with a few months of mortgage payments. At the very least get your place on the market or have it ready to be listed immediately. And finally, don't write a ridiculous contract and expect a seller to wait around for you... try getting a better bottom line and getting some cash.

TO EVERYONE:
Stop "playing" real estate and leave the buying and selling to those that are serious. Be realistic. Your house is not immune to this market... a slow market applies to everyone. Let's end the stand-off and get back to a normal market. Everyone is going to have to bend if we want to move on and move up. Everyone has to take on a little risk. That's life. That's real estate.

I am sure each buyer out there looking has a similar gripe about sellers. Let's hear your stories...

Sincerely,

A realistic seller... looking for a realistic buyer.

PS: My home is for sale, meticulously kept and maintained in a desirable area. I have reduced my price 27% and ready to make someone a good deal!

This reminds me of an email I sent to my listing clients last November. Read it here. Pay particular attention to the five (5) "Be's." They are more pertinent now than ever before.

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June 11, 2006

There is some interesting dialog going on at RCG. Fascinating! Don't miss it. It's about REALTORS®, brokers, new entrants to the marketplace, who's doing what to who and why, commissions...and much more. What a controversy Dustin and others have sparked. Good debate and insightful (and otherwise) comments.

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What's New?

Our reorganization is nearly complete. Here are the latest changes:

NEW ON THE FRONT PAGE
Under What's New: Loudoun Market Watch - Periodic sampling of the current market status for Loudoun County including:

• Current Active Inventory on the date the sample is taken
• New Listings in the last 30 days
• New Contracts in the last 30 days
• Homes Sold in the last 30 days

We will be taking samples at least once per week.

NEW NAVIGATION - TOPICS INSIDE THE GUIDE
All of the main topics inside the Guide are now featured toward the top of each page in the sidebar. The number indicates the number of articles in that Topic and the + denotes the existence of sub-topics.

MARKET TRENDS with the charts and graphs is moved to the main Topic of MARKET CONDITIONS. Here's what you will find under MARKET CONDITIONS:

• - Economic Forecasts [3]
• - Fairfax County [3]
• - Fairfax Market Trends at a glance [1]
• - Fairfax Absorption Rates [1]
• - Fairfax Buyer Intensity [1]
• - Fairfax Inventory [1]
• - Loudoun County [41]
• - Loudoun Market Trends at a glance [2]
• - Loudoun Absorption Rates [1]
• - Loudoun Appreciation Rates [1]
• - Loudoun Buyer Intensity [1]
• - Loudoun Days on Market [1]
• - Loudoun Inventory [1]
• - Loudoun New Construction [1]
• - Loudoun Price and Volatility [1]
• - Loudoun Sold Price Ratio [1]

All the same content and, comments are now accepted on the charts and graphs. The old links to the charts will continue to be available from your bookmarks through the end of June.

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June 9, 2006

The weekly wine pick from the Leesburg Vintner.

WINE OF THE WEEK

Our wine of the week is one not to miss. This has always been one of our favorite Italian reds and for 9.99 it is an incredible value. At 9.00 it is a steal! And...

SATURDAY'S SAMPLING

Please join us Saturday, June 10, from 12-4 for an exciting wine tasting featuring the wines of Fess Parker from Santa Barbara, California. We will be pouring Chardonnay, Viognier and Syrah.

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Falesco Vitiano Rosso 2004
A blend of equal parts Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon and Sangiovese grapes grown in the region of Umbria. Vitiano is vinified in stainless steel tanks and aged in Nevers barrels for 3 months before being bottled. This is a young red wine with explosive, luscious aromas. The wine has a wonderful deep, ruby red color with a wide range of organoleptic qualities. It is rich in polyphenols and balanced acidity. This versatile red is at it's best in its youth when the fresh fruit character is most evident. Vitiano is a perennial value.

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Have a great weekend. Mike, Peter, Claire

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June 5, 2006

One of the most irritating aspects of the "free blog press" is how hard spammers want to get your attention with dr--- (bleep), s--(bleep) and gam-----(bleep) through the comment facility. I currently have one trying everything under the sun to get published on this blog. I say GIVE IT UP! READ THE POST SCRIPT. COMMENTS ARE MODERATED BECAUSE OF SC---BA---(bleep)(bleep) LIKE YOU.

I feel better getting that off my chest! I am sure there will be retaliation. But, I DON"T GIVE A (bleep)! I'm in the mood for a Blog (bleep). This just (bleeps) me off!

...(bleep--bleep)...[bleep]!#$%^&^%{bleeeeeeeeeeep...}

The next version, MovableType 3.2, is supposed to be better. I've got to migrate soon.

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Exciting Real Estate Search Terms

by Merv on Monday, June 5, 2006 at 06:02 PM | [0] Comments [0] Blog links

Here are a couple of "Google Images" search terms I found in my server stats:

Naked Realtors
Smoking Naked

I am sure the they were disappointed when clicking through to us. Go ahead. Try it.

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June 2, 2006

Realty Blogging: The Community

by Merv on Friday, June 2, 2006 at 11:26 PM | [1] Comments [0] Blog links

We are honored to be invited to participate on the "Expert Panel" of Realty Blogging: "A Blogging Systems Community Blog" focused on "Effective Real Estate Blogging" by "A Network of Blogging Evangelists." Whew...that's a mind full.

We posted our first article for the Blogging Community this evening about Style. Why it is important...

RealtyBlogging was created by Richard Nacht who is also the Founder and CEO of Blogging Systems. Blogging Systems is a corporate sponsor of the Habitat for Humanity as well as the Inman News Blog.

It is absolutely awesome to watch this medium catch fire!

Look for in the sidebar.

When is the last time you saw so many links in one of my articles? Who did we leave out?

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