July 2006 Article History

There are 12 articles published in July 2006. Here are the first 20:

The Guide is on a 7 day break Independence Day - 230 years later

Our Real Estate Clients are Very Special People Fairfax County Market Watch Northern Virginia Housing Market on Cruise Control Fairfax County Real Estate Trends Fairfax County Sold to List Price Ratio Fairfax County Price Volatility Fairfax County Average Days On Market Fairfax County Annual Appreciation Rates Blogging for Business DC Metro Condo Bubble

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category in the History Archives.

July 29, 2006

We were hesitant to publish this testimonial in the Guide back in January as we had not sold their property when they sent this to us. Pam and I had a farewell dinner last night with Jason and Wendy and realized one more time that trusting relationships are everything in this business. Their home is under contract and will close August 18th. They never wavered in this tough market, always wanted our candid opinions and acted upon them.

Wendy is a webmaster and provided the inspiration for us to offer custom property websites for our RE/MAX Renowned Properties clients. They were the first (aka beta) to have their property (Aponivi Farm) showcased with our exclusive design and content (built on this blogging software by the way).

Here's what they had to say:

Wendy Dew and Jason Vick | Purcellville, Virginia

January 29, 2006

To Whom It May Concern,
My husband and I have bought and sold real estate in both Fairfax and Loudoun counties over the past 10 years. We have studied the real estate market carefully during that time and have learned all the in's and out's of buying and selling in a fast paced market. We have literally seen it all, having looked at over 500 homes in our various searches. We have had both smooth and disastrous closings. We have worked with good agents and horrible agents. This is the first time we have worked with excellent agents: Merv and Pam Forney.

We are in the process of selling our home in Loudoun. This is an important sale for us so we interviewed 7 real estate agencies. We knew what we wanted and knew how the market works. Once again during the interview process we were amazed at the incompetence of most agents. At 3% commission on a 1+ Million dollar home, we expected excellent service.

Merv and Pam were the only agents who came to our home thoroughly prepared with a complete market analysis based on actual research and statistical models. Merv and Pam by far have the most intelligent perspective on the current state of the market in Northern Virginia we have come across. They do not over-dramatize the state of the market. We believe this is due to the analytical and studied approach they take to the profession. They base all information on BOTH experience AND statistical market research.

Merv and Pam are by far the most Internet savvy agents we have come across. We know that most buyers scan the Internet looking for their next home and that a strong Internet presence is key to selling your home. Others agents had broken links on their sites and poor listings on Realtor.com and Homesdatabase.com. ALL of Merv's listings looked excellent. Merv also provides a very flexible compensation program that can be tailored to different sellers needs. Merv allows his compensation to be based on actual tasks as opposed to just a straight commission. We were able to off-set some costs by helping with the development of our home's website.

Merv and Pam are among the few agents in this area who are truly practicing real estate in the 21st Century. This area has sophisticated buyers and sellers who are very Internet savvy and who want to pay for actual services they receive. The old real estate model is OUT and Merv and Pam Forney are IN.

Thank you
Wendy Dew and Jason Vick

Jason and Wendy are off to Colorado and they will be missed. In addition to valued clients and Very Special People (VSP), they became our good friends. A nice byproduct in this personal services business. We look forward to visiting them in Colorado!

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Fairfax County: Inventory of homes for sale, under contract, sold and housing price trends.

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July 26, 2006

The Washington Post has an article on the front page below the fold announcing a housing slowdown for most of the D.C. Metro area based on change in median prices from the same period last year and rising inventories. Here's their opening excerpt:

After 5 Years of Growth, Home Prices Drop

Inventories Swell in Parts of D.C. Region

By Tomoeh Murakami Tse
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 26, 2006; Page A01

In what may be the most telling sign yet that the real estate market here has shifted downward, median prices of homes in several parts of the Washington area have declined when compared with the same time last year.

Read the full article here.

In addition to some statistics, the article contains interviews with a select group of sellers that tell their price cutting stories. Experts are in disagreement on potential price declines...some say only a few percent, some say 10 to 20%. Is a 20% decline a disaster? In my mind the answer is no. A 20% decline would bring prices back in line with 2005 since we have enjoyed gains much greater than 20% last year.

From our own experience, our more realistic clients dropped prices an average of 10 to 12% from their original list price to attract a buyer. In one case, a specialty property was lowered 32% to attract a contract.

We take a daily sample of the Loudoun market (see graph) and display the most recent 30 day activity. What is astonishing is how it appears there is relatively little change in the numbers. The number of new listings, new contracts, homes sold, expired listings and withdrawals are nearly constant; like some great force has put the market on cruise control at a constant slow speed. Inventory does appear to be on a slow decline. At the current rate of change, it will take years for the inventory to return to somewhere "normal" (I'm not sure anyone can define normal. Normal might be pre 2004 before the extreme market heat.)

At any rate, if you need to sell in this market, look around at your competition and offer a better value proposition: more home for a lower price!

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July 23, 2006

FINALLY...All the Fairfax County trend charts are available with 72 months of data. They are listed under the Market Conditions category. The New Construction chart will be available in the near future.

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Sold Price as a percent of List Price. Hover on data points to view values.

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Six (6) years of average price data for Fairfax County, Virginia. The red bars measure absolute change in price (volatility) and is an indication of market instability. Hover on data points to view values.

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Average number of days homes are on the market from list date to ratified contract by month. An indicator of how long it takes a home to sell in the current market. Hover on data points to view values.

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Six years of data displayed is based on the average sales price for all residential property types each month as reported by the MLS for Fairfax County, Virginia. Cummulative Appreciation uses January, 2000 as the base with a starting value of zero. Monthly % Appreciation is either (+) or (-) representing an increase or decrease in appreciation for the month. Year to Year Appreciation is the difference in appreciation over a twelve month interval calculated monthly. The chart to the right shows the Average Yearly Appreciation for each year (Blue line below).
Hover on data points to view values.

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July 20, 2006

We are honored to be invited to present at the upcoming Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® annual conference on September 5th. The subject? Blogging for Business. As I gather material for this short presentation I am constantly reminded about how we got started, how we evolved and why we do it. I thought it would be interesting to other real estate professionals to provide a series of links to articles written by us as well as others about this relatively new "New Thing", how we use it and how it benefits our readers (and ultimately us). So, here they are:

• Why Blog about Real Estate by the RE/MAX Silver Fern Team in Boulder Colorado
• The Blog Category from Jim Duncan of Real Central VA in Charlottesville.
• Rain City Guide interviews with nationally recognized real estate Bloggers.
• My own articles about Blogging including Evolution of a Real Estate Blog and Blogging Perspectives.

There is so much great material written about Blogging in our industry it would be exhausting (and impossible) to try to list them all. Try a Google Search with the term "real estate blogging." You might be surprised!

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July 16, 2006

The Washington Post ran an interesting "above the fold" article yesterday in its weekly Real Estate Section on Condo sales in the region. In two years the number of new Condo projects increased from 78 to 279, a 258% increase. The total number of new units on the market today is about 25,300, up from 5,600 two years ago. That's a whopping 352% increase! While the article attempts to give a perspective on the market for these, it fails to discuss the affordability. Some quick MLS checking for Fairfax County reveals there are 3,418 Condos listed since the first of the year at an average list price of $336,123 for a two bedroom unit. Condo advertisements in the same section yesterday shows new units ranging from the mid $200,000 to the mid $300,000 for one bedroom depending on location. Looks like some heavy betting by developers in this market segment.

Read the full Post article here.

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July 2, 2006

We will be away from July 4th through July 10th on our 12th annual trip to the Grandfather Mountain Highland Games (GMHG) in Linville, North Carolina. This is one of the oldest and grandest Scottish games in the nation. The games were founded in 1956 by Agnes MacRae Morton (mother of Grandfather Mountain owner Hugh Morton) and former Charlotte News reporter Donald MacDonald. Estimated attendance for the 4 day event is 30,000 visitors and participants.

More information on GMHG can be found here and here.

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July 1, 2006

Our Independance Day is the most significant of all national holidays. 230 years ago we became responsible for our own destiny. We have matured as a nation of free people. We continue to be the envy of the free world and, at the same time, hated by those that do not embrace our values. We are free to choose our politics, where we stand on issues, our religion and our lifestyles.

We are curious about all things. We explore. We are innovators. We question all things and continuously search for truths.

We are family and free to have our disagreements but, like a family, we are close. Don't threaten us because we become one in an instant. Criticize us because we are not perfect. We don't like it but, we listen. Great civilizations rise and fall. Ours, based on freedom, will live on.

This is one blogger that says "God bless America."

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