Inside Opinions
Our opinions about the real estate industry, goverment and politics.
There are 27 articles written on this subject. The most recent 10 are listed here:
| You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category and by Month in the Archives. |
August 17, 2007
Tulips, .coms and sub-prime (and home prices)
by Merv on Friday, August 17, 2007 at 06:43 AM | [4] Comments [0] Blog linksCheap money over the last few years has benefited many. More people were able to purchase homes that were otherwise locked out. Home ownership rates rose significantly. Now, so are foreclosures. Many saw an opportunity to participate in the American Dream. Many chose to over leverage out of greed.
I am far from being an economic wizard and cannot predict what long term impact this crises will have. I suspect there is some good that will remain. What I am sure about is that this is not the last speculative bubble I will experience in my lifetime.
Let those that placed big bets lose. Let the government (the Fed) be wise about how to stabilize this mess. It won't be the first time...and it will not be the last.
In the meantime, there are home bargains to be had. Now, if we can just find someone to loan the money.
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June 1, 2007
Pressure at Mortgage Firm: The other side of the story
by Merv on Friday, June 1, 2007 at 05:45 AM | [2] Comments [0] Blog linksI also pointed to an article from The Washington Post titled "Pressure at Mortgage Firm Led To Mass Approval of Bad Loans" that depicted the intense internal pressure resulting in bad behavior inside bankrupt New Century Financial. I received a comment from an employee working in the same office that paints a different picture than the one the Post writer painted in his article. This comment comes from Duane Hamm and warrants being featured on the front page. Here's his comment:
I had the misfortune of working with Maggie Hardiman as the appraisal clerk (my job was to assist her and the other appraisal reviewer) in the New Century branch she's talking about in this article and I have to say that not only is every word she said in that article a lie, she left out the fact that she was a difficult unreasonable monster to work with. She would reject loans because there was a shadow on the roof from nearby trees or in some cases simply because she didn't like the appraiser. I remember one time she had me spend all day gathering information on a certain appraiser she knew personally in order to get him blacklisted from New Century. When the information I provided showed he was a competent appraiser she got mad and accused me of working against her.I did Google Ms. Hardiman as Duane suggested and found nothing conclusive other than a swarm of controversy around her job and local Hopkinton, R.I. politics. Ms. Hardiman was fired in July, 2006 from her position as tax assessor and since filed grievances alleging unlawful termination, civil rights violations and a hostile work environment. I could not find any additional reporting as to the outcome.
Paranoia was a common theme with her. Whenever anyone disagreed with her she would accuse the whole office of being against her.
Yes, it's true that when she would reject something, they would bring it to the other reviewer. But again, she neglects to mention that he was a well respected, competent appraiser with years of experience. And he didn't always overturn her decision, just the insane ones. While we're on that note, I should mention that whenever he rejected an appraisal, she would seek out the account executive and do anything in her power to accept it just to spite him. Since he only rejected appraisals for legitimate reasons that means many loans that never should have made it out did because of her.
I'm not normally one to celebrate another person's misfortune but the day she was fired was a great day for me and my job became so much more enjoyable after she was gone. The whole office breathed a sigh of relief that day.
I'm not saying things like this don't happen or that my office was perfect, and I wasn't aware of every single dealing in that office. I can only say that what Maggie Hardiman says in this article is completely false and I can't stand by and see my former co-workers and friends slandered like this.
I could go on but I'll leave it at this. If anyone is interested, you can email me at duanehamm@yahoo.com and Maggie if you read this, shame on you.
One last thing about Maggie, Google "Margaret Hardiman" "Hopkinton" for a nice little story about the nightmare she put a small RI town through in her next job.
So, What is the truth? It is always what one perceives it to be. What is a reporter's responsibility to vet all the actors in a sensational story? I'd say imperative to be balanced reporting. But, balance is always what one perceives it be.
Note: Mr. Hamm's opinions are completely his own in his own words.
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May 25, 2007
Living at the speed of light ... or do we?
by Merv on Friday, May 25, 2007 at 06:41 AM | [0] Comments [0] Blog links
The advances in personal technology in the last five to 10 years is phenomenal: high definition digital TV, cell phones with text messaging (and now picture messaging), digital cameras that rival film, broadband access to the Internet, go everywhere digital telephone and television (think FIOS) and virtually every new automobile is powered and controlled by computers. At the same time, information available to us is growing exponentially. Even in real estate I am constantly bombarded with solicitations to buy the next new thing that will instantly notify me of changes in the marketplace: an infinite variety of email alerts, text alerts on my cell phone or a telephone alert from a digital voice.
Are we in overload? I suspect we are. I'd guess much of society's anxiety comes from the "give me more and give it to me faster" habit. I have become so addicted to instant information that I worry about the cell phone reception and Internet access when planning a vacation! I just can't get away from
E-Mail Reply to All: 'Leave Me Alone'Then there was this article from I found through The Morning News, one of my favorite on-line news sources:
By Mike Musgrove
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 25, 2007; Page A01
Last month, venture capitalist Fred Wilson drew a lot of attention on the Internet when he declared a 21st century kind of bankruptcy. In a posting on his blog about technology, Wilson announced he was giving up on responding to all the e-mail piled up in his inbox.
"I am so far behind on e-mail that I am declaring bankruptcy," he wrote. "If you've sent me an e-mail (and you aren't my wife, partner, or colleague), you might want to send it again. I am starting over."
College professors have done the same thing, and a Silicon Valley chief executive followed Wilson's example the next day. Last September, the recording artist Moby sent an e-mail to all the contacts in his inbox announcing that he was taking a break from e-mail for the rest of the year.
The rest of the story ...
Why I decided to pull the plug on emailInteresting stuff. Then there is text messaging on the cell phone ... My friends generally text me when we get close to a weekend ... "hang out tonight?" I text them back ... "where?" ... and so on. I fumble so badly on a 10 digit keypad that it takes me 10 times longer to send the reply than just calling to have a quick discussion of where and when.
Tom Hodgkinson
Wednesday March 7, 2007
The Guardian
I've given up email. Well, almost. At the weekend I set up one of those auto-reply messages, informing my correspondents that I would no longer be checking my emails, and that instead they might like to call or write, as we used to in the olden days.
Over the past few months, I had found myself becoming wedded to my computer in a worrying fashion. Deleting 200 spams a day is a drag. And I was checking my email constantly, rather than getting on with my real work, which is reading and writing. Email was becoming a distraction, a burden rather than a liberation. I also wondered whether some of my business might have been more quickly and enjoyably sorted out with one phone call rather than five emails.
The rest of the story ...
Instant messaging anyone? I became a big IM user when the twins went off to college. That first semester was a killer. But, that's what they did, how they communicated to their friends, so Pam and I took it up in a big way. Our silly way of wanting to maintain contact during "empty nest" withdrawal. There was something about that short, cryptic (I mean really cryptic, I had to learn IM language) message coming back that made us feel confident that they were still alive and kicking. After several weeks of worry about their welfare (more likely: what are you really doing at college?) it slowly dwindled. Pam and I started to really enjoy each other and OUR new found freedom from daily "kid dependency." I haven't logged in to IM for at least three years, maybe a bit longer, and I don't miss it.
My real estate clients are mixed when it comes to "how do I best communicate with you?" Some prefer the personal call while others prefer email. I have to say there are pros and cons to both. If it is urgent, make the call. If not, email it. The best thing about email is that I can keep a historical record of all the conversations. I am probably the worst at keeping a phone log.
OK, enough of that ... Let's get back to the question: Living at the speed of light ... or do we? Here's another excerpt from "Why I decided to pull the plug on email" that answers it for me:
We have to wonder whether digital technology, rather than making it easier to communicate, is actually doing the opposite. We now sit alone at a keyboard, firing off zeros and ones into the ether. Offices are silent. "Everybody's talking, but no one says a word," as Lennon had it.I've often thought that the generation of my children were going to mature into social misfits preferring "text, IM and email" as the norm and not learning how to interact with people on a personal level. I guess those fears have subsided because they both created long lasting friendships from college. Maybe three-to-a-room dorms weren't such a bad thing after all.
We live at the speed of light until we venture out onto our highway system during commute hours. Then, we travel at the speed of a snail. By the way, or BTW, today is Friday before a holiday weekend. Our local highways will be jammed with traffic from about 2:00 this afternoon through late night. There will be anxiety, road rage and general discourtesy to each other by countless thousands going somewhere to have personal contact with families and friends. What causes this bad behavior? Addiction to speed.
I'm going to stay home this weekend and email all my friends and family. I might even do some cell phone texting. It will be less stressful.
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May 9, 2007
What flavor loan is in your future?
by Merv on Wednesday, May 9, 2007 at 09:39 AM | [6] Comments [0] Blog linksThere is an interesting piece in the Washington Post this morning focused on the vicious cycle of industries gone bad:
Industries Could Take Cues From Hollywood on Self-ControlAnd, this featured article from a couple of days ago (In The News, above):
By Steven Pearlstein
Wednesday, May 9, 2007; Page D01
Hardly a day goes by that you don't read another account of sleazy business practices among subprime mortgage bankers or student loan companies or the private health plans under Medicare.
You know, the stories about mortgage companies that pressured appraisers to approve loans for amounts in excess of house values, and Wall Street investment banks that demanded more and more mortgages to package even if it meant lowering underwriting standards.
Pressure at Mortgage Firm Led To Mass Approval of Bad LoansThen there is the constant stream of spam solicitations coming across my FAX machine like the one pictured above. Not to mention email spam and Blog comment spam. The interesting aspect of the solicitation above is the block just below the center of the page:
By David Cho
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, May 7, 2007; Page A01
Maggie Hardiman cringed as she heard the salesmen knocking the sides of desks with a baseball bat as they walked through her office. Bang! Bang!
" 'You cut my [expletive] deal!' " she recalls one man yelling at her. " 'You can't do that.' " Bang! The bat whacked the top of her desk. As an appraiser for a company called New Century Financial, Hardiman was supposed to weed out bad mortgage applications. Most of the mortgage applications Hardiman reviewed had problems, she said.
- Debt Consolidation
- 100% Financing (actually I saw one a few days ago advertising 125% Financing)
- Bankruptcy OK
- Foreclosure OK
- UNLIMITED Cash Out
- No Income Verification (ie; a liar loan)
Where there is money there will be greed. Where there is greed there will be bad behavior and illegal, fraudulent activity. It doesnt discriminate by industry. They are all susceptible. Even real estate. When industries cannot regulate themselves, guess who will. And, the sooner the better.
Excuse me. I just received two more one-page faxes. I'd better go see what deals I am missing this morning.
Ahhh...Air Duct Cleaning (appealing to my sense of health) and the repeated FINAL NOTICE memo to All Corporate Employees RE: Employee Vacation Time.
Air Ducts: no. But, I do need a vacation...so...I'm calling right away! My next article is from Cancun.
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April 15, 2007
Where is my Sunday Business section?
by Merv on Sunday, April 15, 2007 at 08:09 AM | [0] Comments [0] Blog linksSunday, on the other hand, was my day of rest from reading real estate news. Sunday was my day to read the BUSINESS section about, well...business: the local economy, the business of government and government contractors, our robust bio-tech industries, our technology industries, who's doing what to who and who's in and who's out. If something significant was happening to companies that happen to be in the real estate and related industries, then that was business news too.
But, starting today, Sunday, April 15th the Post BUSINESS section started a new subsection called SUNDAY REAL ESTATE (see Editor's Note). The BUSINESS section this morning is 14 pages:
- Five pages are devoted to weekly stock tables. Appropriate.
- One page is devoted to "Working" including the weekly column about life at work and "Professional Opportunities" with the government and industry. These are usually executive level positions. As an ex-executive, I find these interesting and sometimes enticing.
- Four and one half pages are devoted to local business news and personal finance columns.
- The remaining three and one half pages are SUNDAY REAL ESTATE.
- Almost one half page devoted to an article about the Glut of New Homes on the market. OK, business news. I found it interesting and informative; like the statistic that in the fourth quarter of 2006 there were over 40,000 new homes on the market in the greater Washington region. Wow. I'm not sure I have seen this data point before. Explains a ton about the local sluggishness in the re-sale sector.
- Again, nearly one half page devoted to Price Points. And what do you suppose the feature article is about? KITCHEN SINKS. All about KITCHEN SINKS. The first sentence is "You need a kitchen sink..." Followed with different models, styles, cost and where to purchase.
- Two half columns including a short real estate glossary, "Life of a Kitchen" and a summary of a weekly online chat.
- The remaining space, two and one-half pages, are devoted to builder ads
A better explanation is that the traditional news media has seen declining ad revenue. I see this as just another strategy to boost ad revenue. And, they have pimped my SUNDAY BUSINESS section to achieve that goal. Only 14% of what is printed in three and one half pages of SUNDAY REAL ESTATE is worthy of business news. The rest is junk.
Warren Buffet, the greatest investor and astute business person of all time, owns a piece of the Post and sits on their board. Did anyone ask Warren if this was a good idea? I didn't think so.
PLEASE! Give our real SUNDAY BUSINESS back to us.
PS: This inaugural edition of SUNDAY REAL ESTATE will go in the pile I use to start the fire in my fireplace. It doesn't deserve to be recycled. WARNING: Clicking any of the links above will annoy you as it does me with the potential of FULL SCREEN pop-up ads. Be sure to turn your pop-up blocker on before exploring the articles.
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February 4, 2007
Everyone feeling the pain and an industry gone wacko!
by Merv on Sunday, February 4, 2007 at 10:21 AM | [3] Comments [1] Blog links
Or, maybe it is always wacko. An article yesterday in the Washington Post has me shaking my head. A survey conducted reports that 90% of the appraisers surveyed indicated they were pressured to raise their appraised value. Here's the excerpt:
Appraisers Under Pressure To Inflate Values
By Kenneth R. HarneyWith home prices softening and sales volume sagging in many local markets, real estate appraisers say that pressure on them to inflate values has reached pandemic proportions.
Saturday, February 3, 2007; Page F01
A new survey of the national appraisal industry found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, real estate agents, lenders and even consumers have put pressure on them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through. That percentage is up sharply from a parallel survey conducted in 2003, when 55 percent of appraisers reported attempts to influence their findings and 45 percent reported "never." Now the latter category is down to just 10 percent.
Read the full article.
Can appraisers be wrong? Probably. An appraisal is simply an estimate of market value. Appraisers live by an industry code of ethics and industry standards. Their work needs to stand up in court. The biggest offenders are mortgage brokers (the middle man) and real estate brokers. Both want the "deal" to close. Sellers are on this list too. Feeling the pain of sitting on the market a long time, they don't want their contract to go south because it didn't appraise and the buyer potentially walks away.
I have had less than desirable appraisals on a seller's listing under contract. We first ask to see the report. We have an opportunity to offer questions about the estimated value. We can even offer our own comps that the appraiser did not consider. But, in the end, a good appraiser will stand by his or her work and only modify an opinion on hard facts. Maybe asking questions and offering more data is interpretted as "pressure." Beyond that, here are the sellers and buyers options (notice "pressure the appraiser" is not in the list):
- Re-negotiate the selling price. I had one where the appraisal came in $20,000 low. The buyer and seller agreed to a new contract price $10,000 lower than the original offer. A win-win conclusion in this case. Of course, the buyer had to come up with the extra cash to purchase the home because the buyer was financing at 80% of the appraised value. Lender underwriters need a number to hang their hat on; the appraised value is that number.
- Seller may not be willing to negotiate risking the buyer walking away from the deal.
- The buyer simply walks away because of the low appraisal. Happens all the time.
- If the buyer and mortgage company agree, obtain a second opinion at the seller's expense. Then go back to the top of this list.
- Are there other options? I'd love to read your comments or real experiences.
Are there dishonest appraisers? Sure, just like dishonest real estate agents, brokers, lenders, clergy, police and (fill in the blank) ________________. When there is money involved, many will go over the ethical and legal line (or maybe just straddle it which is just as bad). Harvey concludes his article by offering this view by an executive of a large appraisal firm:
Bottom line in Hummel's view: Congress needs to enact legislation making pressuring appraisers to distort their valuations, or interfering with appraisals in any way, a federal offense, subject to criminal penalties. And state regulators need to step up enforcement against fraudulent appraisals, pressure tactics and appraisers who give in.I still can't get over the 90% figure from the survey. No wonder our industry has a bad reputation. I'm feeling a little dirty. I think I'll go wash my hands.
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November 30, 2006
My prediction for the 2007 local housing market
by Merv on Thursday, November 30, 2006 at 10:00 PM | [9] Comments [0] Blog links
Jennifer posed a relevant question in her comment entry. It is so timely it deserved this article.
Merv - As one of the realtors in this area who analyzes data how are the Fairfax and Loudoun markets doing? And what can we expect in 2007?Jennifer, great question! I assume when you say this area you are in the DC Metro area. But, it doesn't really matter. Here's my take:
Current
Fairfax and Loudoun have very similar patterns of buying and selling, Fairfax just a bit more robust than Loudoun today. You can see this in all the charts we produce. Inventory is dropping rather rapidly in both counties. Not because of more selling. Sellers are just not re-listing when expired or withdrawn and new sellers (maybe discretionary) are gathering on the sidelines waiting for the spring market.
On to 2007
No one can predict tomorrow much less 3 to 6 months from now (sorry for the attention grabbing title). But, that being said, I'll tell you and all our readers what won't surprise me.
About Sellers
It would not surprise me to see a flood of new listings starting late February, early March causing inventory to rise significantly. It would not surprise me to see prices come down another 10 to 12% next year. I believe it will remain a buyers market well into 2008. (Added Dec 1, 2006): By the way, I don't consider this a housing crash. Just a rollback to early 2005 prices adjusting for the unrealistically intense sellers market of 2004 and 2005.
About buyers
There seems to be pent up demand but most are fearful that the market will fall more and are waiting on the sidelines watching. More importantly, most buyers have a home to sell into this slow market and understand that a contract offer with a home sale contingency just won't fly, I call it the the Domino Effect (DE). Question: How many contingencies in the chain is too many? Answer: One. Buyers that can enter this market unencumbered can make some incredible deals but, only a few are.
OK. There you have it. Now just sit back and watch reality take place before our collective eyes. You will see the real numbers here first. Day in and day out. Period.
I strongly believe it is our job to put the numbers into perspective with real world, on-the-ground experience. No amount of crunching historic numbers up to and including this moment in time replaces our collective experience of what we see doing our jobs serving real clients.
Thanks for the question. It's good to have this dialog with fellow professionals. We will bolster our credibility by sharing our collective experiences. Have a g'day!
Somehow when I read Jennifer's question I concluded that she was a real estate agent. Not necessarily true. None-the-less, her question is one we get asked all the time.
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October 10, 2006
I wonder...or, let me tell you what I really think...
by Merv on Tuesday, October 10, 2006 at 06:26 PM | [6] Comments [0] Blog linksIn the local news, I wonder why our politicians can't get it right about our transportation needs. We're choking in traffic and they worry about their political hides. I wonder why County officials (also of the political persuasion) can't come to agreement on growth controls. We're choking some more. At the national level I wonder why there seems to be a void of common sense on very basic issues concerning our industry, consumer choice and protecting property rights from stupid, ridiculous, selfish and outrageous eminent domain condemnations not for public use but, (drum roll) for developers!
Speaking of developers, I wonder why they clear cut woods to put 800 homes on 200 acres. Don't they realize wooded lots bring a premium? I like looking at new homes that have some old trees left behind. Besides, a few trees are good for the environment and some are really cool for kids to climb. I climbed trees when I was a kid. I even had a tree house. I also wonder why a small custom builder would build an 11,000 square foot spec home in a neighborhood where the average size is probably 4,000 square feet (I know, some consider that obscenely big too). What are they thinking? Who is going to buy it? Have they not heard about the principle of regression and progression? Or, how about conformity? Another common sense void not to mention the lack of social responsibility at some level to a community. And, the county (the one mentioned above) approved it. Go figure.
I wonder why our standard real estate purchase contract has ballooned to 10 pages of legalistic bull $&^#@$ with many more potential add-on addendum. Is it protecting consumers or are we just covering our own back side? I suspect it is more back side. I see another class in my future.
I wonder about the real estate commission debate. Inman news is offering a big book about commissions for nearly $700 ($549 for subscribers). I don't need to spend that kind of money to figure out that the whole commission structure has out lasted its understanding (actually misunderstood). Full service, limited service, half service, no service. What's wrong with just getting paid for your efforts (time) and expenses? Now that's a novel idea. What's wrong with sharing the financial risk with a client instead of taking all the risk and and charging the risk fee in commissions? Do buyers pay commissions? Yes, over 30 years in their mortgage. Real estate is a personal service business just like CPAs, Lawyers and consultants. I think I'll publish a series of articles on commissions as I have given it much thought, experimented with different models and learned a lot about what works and what doesn't and what consumers like and don't. I won't charge a thing for them.
These are a few of the things I wonder about. There are many more things I worry about that we trust our national leaders to deal with effectively. Or do they? I wonder about that too.
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September 20, 2006
Gen. Jubal A. Early grounded on the Potomac?
by Merv on Wednesday, September 20, 2006 at 05:41 AM | [0] Comments [0] Blog linksMutinous Ferry Roils the WatersWhite's Ferry is somewhat of a historical landmark on the Potomac River carrying commuters back and forth between Loudoun County and Montgomery County, Maryland. It's a great alternative to the long commutes to the beltway or north across the bridge at Point of Rocks on Route 15 (a two-lane historical byway that has become the de facto "outer beltway"). I know. I used the ferry for almost four years in my corporate life.
Boat Owner Entangled in Licensing Dispute Ignores Coast Guard's Order to Shut Down
By Fredrick Kunkle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 15, 2006; Page B03
True to its Confederate namesake, the Gen. Jubal A. Early ferryboat yesterday defied orders by the federal government to halt operations because of a licensing dispute and instead kept chugging back and forth across the Potomac River carrying hundreds of commuters.
More to this story...with photos.
The ferry transports about 500 vehicles a day. That's 500 less on the major commute corridors out of Loudoun County. But, the Coast Guard doesn't seem to care. On the other hand, safety and a knowledgeable, licensed captain are extremely important. I've experienced many "hard landings" on the ramps, one that damaged my car.
The owner has run the ferry since he purchased it in 1946. He is well aware of the rules. Mr. Brown: get it inspected and keep your "captains" licensed. We need you. We need the ferry. We need it to be safe.
Coast Guard: This isn't an ocean going vessel. It's a raft on a cable. Don't be so punitive. Be part of the solution. Reasonable people will act reasonably.
In case you are interested you can...read more.
The ferry carries about 21 average sized vehicles and makes a round trip in about 15 minutes, loading and unloading at each end. It is basically a metal raft guided by cable across the river. As a maritime vessel, the Coast Guard has vessel inspection authority and requires a licensed captain to operate it.
Seems as though the Coast Guard performed a recent check and found the vessel did not have a required inspection certificate and was operating without a licensed captain. The Gen. Jubal A. Early was ordered to cease operations, and threatened with significant fines. The owner who has run the ferry since 1946 defied the order and continued operation. The ferry carries about 21 average sized vehicles and makes a round trip in about 15 minutes, loading and unloading at each end. It is basically a metal raft guided by cable across the river. As a maritime vessel, the Coast Guard has vessel inspection authority and requires a licensed captain to operate it.
PS: As of this writing the ferry is still operating.
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September 10, 2006
Living in the richest county...
by Merv on Sunday, September 10, 2006 at 10:59 AM | [4] Comments [0] Blog linksMiddle income families can't afford housing in Loudoun.
HEATHER: ...those of us working, living and serving in our community (my husband is a sheriff's deputy with Loudoun County) and trying to move up, it will be one more pat on the head - and a reminder of where we belong.
"...to whom much is given, much is expected"
SERENA: Our Board of Supervisors should explain to residents why we have so many problems budgeting for new schools and roads when we are the richest county in the country.
"This is why we moved to Clarke County 5 months ago"
DEBRA: The influx of residents brought many extremely materialistic, superficial, self-centered and, most of all, rude people. Aggressive drivers became common...Remember the weeks and months after the 9/11 tragedy how courteous, caring, warm and friendly people were to each other without regard to status? Too bad it didn't last.
...warmth and friendliness were replaced with indifference and selfishness. (We moved again)...to escape the very same behavior and attitudes that prompted us to leave Massachusetts six years ago.
When real people speak we should listen. Poignant!
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