Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide

A well stated perspective on market forecasting

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 23:13:58 -0500

Alby says: Hahahha... What is an Alby.. That is funny. Before you know it, I might even get my own Wikipedia blurb. :)

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Topic is "Buying & Selling Real Estate"

My prediction for the 2007 local housing market

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 22:50:03 -0500

Jennifer says: Merv - Thanks for answering my questions. I am not a real estate professional but I am a reseacher (and former journalist). I am a buyer on the sidelines. I currently rent inside the beltway but want to move out closer to Herndon/Reston or Loudoun area. Right now I am just watching and seeing.

My take on things is that we are going to see a decline throughout 2007 more so in Loudoun then in Fairfax. (I sure that has something to do with all the new construction.) It will be a stalemate to some extent. This market will really not start to turn until 2008. 2008/2009 will bring a new change in many government positions with the election. I moved here July 2002 so I have not seen first hand how the market is effected by a presidential election.

I also will be curious to see what the 2007 spring/summer market starts to do.

On another not -- I really enjoy reading your blog. You back up your info with numbers and you are honest. Keep up the good work.

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Topic is "Market Conditions"

Loudoun Home Price Update

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 15:53:00 -0500

Merv says: Sean, we tailor user experience in real time! How about the charts? Are they rendering OK?

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Topic is "Loudoun County Market News"

Loudoun Home Price Update

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 15:26:42 -0500

Sean says: Although the drop down link does not seem to work on my computer, or my "dinosaur", the pop up link does work. Thanks again.

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Topic is "Loudoun County Market News"

Loudoun Home Price Update

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 11:00:17 -0500

Merv says: Sean, I don't save the tables per se, I do feed the data to the charts. Click on the Fairfax and /or Loudoun links. Sorry about the dinosaur. An endangered species.

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Topic is "Loudoun County Market News"

Loudoun Home Price Update

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 08:18:12 -0500

Sean says: Merv,

I was on a different computer last night, and was able to get the drop down menus of the daily snapshot to work. Not so on my home computer, granted, it's a dinosaur. Is there an alternate way to see the data from the last thirty days?

Thanks again for all the work you have done.

Sean

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Topic is "Loudoun County Market News"

A well stated perspective on market forecasting

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 06:11:31 -0500

Merv says: Alby, thanks for the link. The URL was so long it drove my comment trimming logic nuts! I had to fool around with it a bit and reformat the sidebar comments to get it all working right. A bug in this new version of software I installed.

BTW, I found a recent Google search term in my server statistics: "what is an Alby?" I hope they found what they were looking for. :-)

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Topic is "Buying & Selling Real Estate"

A well stated perspective on market forecasting

Sat, 02 Dec 2006 00:26:58 -0500

Alby says: Here are the Loudoun County Population Projections from loudoun.gov.

Loudoun Population Forecast

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Topic is "Buying & Selling Real Estate"

My prediction for the 2007 local housing market

Fri, 01 Dec 2006 19:50:23 -0500

Sean says: I believe you are correct in saying builders may cut back as inventory is worked through. The question is, how many projects have builders already invested in, that would cost more to cut back or even abandon, even if it means taking a slight loss to continue. I too believe that decision makers in homebuilding companies will make decisions to speed up or slow down building based on the bottom line.

The answer to your question about the drop down tables, it appears to me you have spent a lot of time not only presenting what appears to be solid emperical data, but presenting it in a way that is easy to read. I appreciate your work.

One other observation that I have made is that there are several apartment communities in Loudoun that have gone condo, one in Leesburg which went condo a year ago and has only sold 25% of the units. These could go back to being rentals.

I think the big wildcard for medium term trends is the 2008 election and whether or not subprime lending begins to be regulated more.

Thanks again.

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Topic is "Market Conditions"

My prediction for the 2007 local housing market

Fri, 01 Dec 2006 19:21:32 -0500

Merv says: Young Renter, checked out the links and both look appealing at what appears to be good rates.

Many like yourself are frustrated by the price of homes in Northern Virginia. I would be too. If renting makes more sense I say that's OK. The same way I tell potential sellers "if you don't have to sell, don't.

I am fortunate in that I purchased my new construction home in 1994. I could not afford to buy it today.

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Topic is "Market Conditions"