Inside Fairfax County Market News

Real Estate by the numbers for Fairfax County, Virginia.
There are 24 articles written on this subject. The most recent 10 are listed here:

Market Watch Weekly? Your opinion counts! Fairfax Single Family Trends | August Update Fairfax County Real Estate Activity May 2007 Fairfax County Homes For Sale (condos and more) Fairfax County Real Estate Activity April 2007

Fairfax & Loudoun Q1, 2008 Market Updates December 2007 Housing Market Update November Housing Market Data Updates Loudoun and Fairfax County Monthly Charts Monthly Charts Updated with September Data

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category and by Month in the Archives.

April 15, 2008

Our monthly charts are updated with January through March housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

Housing Market Law of Price Gravity
A stronger downward trend on average home prices started in September, 2007. In Loudoun, average price dropped 24% in 7 months and in Fairfax a corresponding 12% drop.

It's Spring, We Must Be Surging
The only surge I see of any significance is in inventory. New listings are out pacing new contracts by a 2:1 margin (New Listing Absorption Rate).

Since I no longer have access to the MLS, I am unable to provide any special data reporting.

We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significantly slower rate than those less than $800,000.

For example, in March there were 13 homes sold in the over $800,000 category from an inventory of 459 properties, or 2.8% absorption. Now, in the markets heyday this price range was pretty healthy and had a definite impact on average price. The luster has rubbed off of these diamonds.

It would be interesting to see how many homes in this category are in foreclosure. Maybe more than we would expect. Those numbers are not even reflected here.

The housing market went up with irrational exuberance and now it must adjust. I have said all along ... "It would not surprise me to see a 25% drop in average price in Loudoun County." Well, I am not surprised.

Good to be back.

Comment on Fairfax & Loudoun Q1, 2008 Market Updates. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

January 16, 2008

All of our monthly charts are updated with December housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

Trend lines were added to the Fairfax and Loudoun price charts showing downward direction from early 2005 to current. Loudoun shows a rate of decline of about $30,000 per year and Fairfax shows a corresponding declining rate of about $8,000 per year.

We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significanly slower rate than those less than $800,000.

For example, from the December MRIS tables for Loudoun County we find the following:

Of the 328 mark as sold properties ...
Attached: 118 sold with 987 active or a 12% absorption rate
Detached: 168 sold with 1789 active or a 9% absorption rate
Condos/Rent: 42 sold with 436 active for a 10% absorption rate
... and then ...
High $ homes: 16 sold with 432 active for a 4% absorption rate (above $800,000)

From the same table we see that total average sold price is down 8% compared to 2006. What is interesting is that the high end townhouses (4+ bedrooms) are down almost 27% and the lower end single family homes (less than 3 bedrooms) are down 28%.

The "sweet spot" for TH resales appears to be evenly distributed in the $300,000 to $500,000 range while single family detached is evenly distributed in the $450,000 to $800,000 range. It appears buyers in the $400,000 to $500,000 are opting for the single family over a TH.

So, what does all this mean? The Loudoun market has definitely shifted out of McMansions. As financing jumbo loans get more difficult, builders lowering new home prices and a high number of "distressed sales" coming on the market this spring, downward pressure on prices for 2008 is anticipated. Is it a good time to buy? My answer is yes if you are buying for the long term and can weather the storm that is expected to last through 2009.

Comment on December 2007 Housing Market Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

December 12, 2007

All of our monthly charts are updated with November housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Loudoun counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

The last three months shows sold listings at its lowest level in the last 6 years. Although current average prices are in a seasonal downturn, Fairfax County prices appear to be relatively flat since the summer of 2005. Average prices in Loudoun County dropped about 7 to 8% from the summer of 2005 through the summer of 2006 but appear to be relatively flat since.

With all the news about foreclosure rates, especially in Loudoun County, it remains to be seen how these come back on the market early in 2008 and what price pressures will result. It is also unknown how the administration's recent deal with lenders to forestall more foreclosures will impact local market conditions going into 2008.

Comment on November Housing Market Data Updates. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

November 13, 2007

All of the monthly charts were updated this morning with October data for Loudoun and Fairfax counties. Check the list of charts under the Market Conditions topic.

The public accessible tables can be found on the MRIS Reports and Statistics Website pages. The October NVAR Market Reports are also available.

Comment on Loudoun and Fairfax County Monthly Charts. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

October 15, 2007

The monthly charts (Fairfax and Loudoun) are updated today with September MLS data (look for the charts under Topics-->>Market Conditions). There is no good news with one exception: Loudoun average price actually increased 5% over August. Go figure...in fact, Fairfax average price took a big drop. Both Fairfax and Loudoun are showing total sales significantly down from last month. September is generally a slow month. Keep watching.

History does not necessarily repeat itself. What is interesting is that the inventory is remaining constant as opposed to last year at this time when it started a steep decline into the winter months. The decline last year was primarily do to withdrawals from the market. Although withdrawals are up, they are not as high as last year. You can see these trends on the Daily Market Watch (now called Weekly). Check out the links on the Front Page top-center.

It has been a long dry summer in the DC metro area. Looks like the real estate draught continues into the winter and beyond. I am now thinking we need to dissipate the short sale and foreclosure inventory before we see any turn around at all. Odd...last year at this time I was saying the same thing about investor dumping.

It is still a good time to be a buyer.

Comment on Monthly Charts Updated with September Data. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

September 12, 2007

After over a year of collecting daily market data and applying them to the table and charts, I came to the conclusion since nothing moves very fast that a weekly sample is just as good and consumes less of my time. Below are samples of the current daily Fairfax Listing Activity followed by the weekly Fairfax Listing Activity covering the same period of time. The weekly samples would be made each Monday morning to ensure we pick up sales activity posted over the weekend.

Another reason for changing to weekly is that with four charts on a page and over 400 data points and counting, they are taking forever to load off the server. I don't necessarily want to cut off the history because it gives a better perspective of what is happening now.

Your opinion is important. Tell me what you think by posting a comment.

Comment on Market Watch Weekly? Your opinion counts!. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News

September 11, 2007

The chart showing Fairfax Single Family homes less than $1,000,000 is updated with August data. Fairfax prices seem to be holding up better than its sister counties, Loudoun and Prince William. Prices remain relatively flat month to month but, the gap between "original list price" and "net sold price" is getting wider and is close to 7%. Homes are selling for about 2.5% above average assessed value.

The daily market watch is showing a significant decline in "contract list price" that is a leading indicator of where prices are headed (see related article).

Comment on Fairfax Single Family Trends | August Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News

June 12, 2007

Fairfax Buyer Intensity
Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market) Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market) Gray Bars: Balanced Market
[click for more detail]

This is the continuation of a monthly series of commentary on the housing market in Fairfax County. See Fairfax County Market News and Daily Market Watch graphs. Headings are links to historical charts.

INVENTORY:
Inventory of homes for sale continues to rise, up another 880 homes to 7,980 in May. Net new listings for the month (new listings - new contracts) are up again to 1,908 properties. About 18% of new listings are properties coming back on the market after expiring or being withdrawn.

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION:
Average home price rose 3.4% from April to the $546,000 level. Median price dropped 3%. For 2007, average price appears to be up and down month to month in the +/- 3% range.

DAYS ON MARKET DOMP:
Average time it takes to sell declined 5 days to 79 days. The Daily Market watch shows this measure declining a bit more to 74 days as of June 12th. Selling activity remains constant at about 1,100 homes per month. New listings show a definite decline since mid May and homes being withdrawn from the market are up 60% since the low in March.

SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
This ratio remains in the 95 to 96% range. I suspect sellers have adjusted asking prices downward based on sluggish demand.

NEW CONSTRUCTION (chart not yet available):
Data not available.

Comment on Fairfax County Real Estate Activity May 2007. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News

May 17, 2007

There was a Washington Post feature story in the Business Section yesterday titled The Bad News On Condos that provided some insights into how terrible the condo market is in the DC Metro area (see In The News). Since I collect daily data, I did a little sample of the Northern Virginia condo market and here is what I found:

Condos (May 16, 2007)	Resales			New Construction *
	Active	List Price	DOMP	Active	List Price	DOMP
Fairfax	1,382	$321K	76	83	$612K	111
Loudoun	342	$297K	103	41	$376K	148
Prince William	271	$300K	92	78	$351K	151
Arlington	377	$398K	71	61	$800K	85
Alexandria	455	$355K	97	22	$548K	115
Total	2,827			285
* New construction data is notoriously unreliable in the MLS

The Post is reporting a 3.4 year backlog of condos for sale in the entire region according to Delta Associates, an Alexandria real estate and consulting firm. Ouch!

While collecting data this morning, I found the following for Fairfax county:

Fairfax County (May 17, 2007)	Resales
	Active	List Price	DOMP
Single Family Detached	3,331	$823K	99
Single Family Attached	1,688	$452K	68
Condos	1.385	$320K	77
Total	6,404	$616K	86

Several of my readers have asked if I could break down the current aggregate data I collect by housing type and include the jurisdictions listed above (and more). I wish I could. It is just too time consuming. There are new monthly reports published by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® on their website that does a pretty good job presenting all the jurisdictions by housing type. The reports are usually available by the 15th of the month for the prior month activity. For Fairfax County in April, only 224 units were sold from an inventory of 1,436, about a 15% absorption rate. Fairfax County may be fairing a bit better than the region as a whole. If we had better new construction data from the MLS it may look much worse.

Comment on Fairfax County Homes For Sale (condos and more). Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News

May 13, 2007

Fairfax Buyer Intensity
Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market) Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market) Gray Bars: Balanced Market
[click for more detail]

This is the continuation of a monthly series of commentary on the housing market in Fairfax County. See Fairfax County Market News and Daily Market Watch graphs. Headings are links to historical charts.

INVENTORY:
Inventory of homes for sale rose nearly 1,000 units again in April to 7,101. Net new listings for the month (new listings - new contracts) was 1,736 rose by almost 1,100 properties. About 17% of new listings are properties coming back on the market after expiring or being withdrawn.

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION:
Average home prices remain at the $530,000 level, flat since January. It still remains to be seen where prices are headed this spring.

DAYS ON MARKET DOMP:
Average time it takes to sell declined 20 days to 84 days. The Daily Market watch shows this measure is flat (81 days as of May 10th). Selling activity is up but, so are new listings.

SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
This ratio rose slightly to 96%. This may be due to sellers pricing their properties more realistically now.

NEW CONSTRUCTION (chart not yet available):
Data not available.

Comment on Fairfax County Real Estate Activity April 2007. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News