Inside Loudoun County Market News

Real Estate by the numbers for Loudoun County, Virginia.
There are 73 articles written on this subject. The most recent 10 are listed here:

Loudoun Single Family Trends | August Update Loudoun single family prices holding steady Loudoun County Real Estate Activity May 2007 No real estate bubble bursting here; just a simple market adjustment Loudoun County Real Estate Activity April 2007

Fairfax & Loudoun Q1, 2008 Market Updates December 2007 Housing Market Update November Housing Market Data Updates Loudoun and Fairfax County Monthly Charts Monthly Charts Updated with September Data

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category and by Month in the Archives.

April 15, 2008

Our monthly charts are updated with January through March housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

Housing Market Law of Price Gravity
A stronger downward trend on average home prices started in September, 2007. In Loudoun, average price dropped 24% in 7 months and in Fairfax a corresponding 12% drop.

It's Spring, We Must Be Surging
The only surge I see of any significance is in inventory. New listings are out pacing new contracts by a 2:1 margin (New Listing Absorption Rate).

Since I no longer have access to the MLS, I am unable to provide any special data reporting.

We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significantly slower rate than those less than $800,000.

For example, in March there were 13 homes sold in the over $800,000 category from an inventory of 459 properties, or 2.8% absorption. Now, in the markets heyday this price range was pretty healthy and had a definite impact on average price. The luster has rubbed off of these diamonds.

It would be interesting to see how many homes in this category are in foreclosure. Maybe more than we would expect. Those numbers are not even reflected here.

The housing market went up with irrational exuberance and now it must adjust. I have said all along ... "It would not surprise me to see a 25% drop in average price in Loudoun County." Well, I am not surprised.

Good to be back.

Comment on Fairfax & Loudoun Q1, 2008 Market Updates. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

January 16, 2008

All of our monthly charts are updated with December housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

Trend lines were added to the Fairfax and Loudoun price charts showing downward direction from early 2005 to current. Loudoun shows a rate of decline of about $30,000 per year and Fairfax shows a corresponding declining rate of about $8,000 per year.

We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significanly slower rate than those less than $800,000.

For example, from the December MRIS tables for Loudoun County we find the following:

Of the 328 mark as sold properties ...
Attached: 118 sold with 987 active or a 12% absorption rate
Detached: 168 sold with 1789 active or a 9% absorption rate
Condos/Rent: 42 sold with 436 active for a 10% absorption rate
... and then ...
High $ homes: 16 sold with 432 active for a 4% absorption rate (above $800,000)

From the same table we see that total average sold price is down 8% compared to 2006. What is interesting is that the high end townhouses (4+ bedrooms) are down almost 27% and the lower end single family homes (less than 3 bedrooms) are down 28%.

The "sweet spot" for TH resales appears to be evenly distributed in the $300,000 to $500,000 range while single family detached is evenly distributed in the $450,000 to $800,000 range. It appears buyers in the $400,000 to $500,000 are opting for the single family over a TH.

So, what does all this mean? The Loudoun market has definitely shifted out of McMansions. As financing jumbo loans get more difficult, builders lowering new home prices and a high number of "distressed sales" coming on the market this spring, downward pressure on prices for 2008 is anticipated. Is it a good time to buy? My answer is yes if you are buying for the long term and can weather the storm that is expected to last through 2009.

Comment on December 2007 Housing Market Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

December 12, 2007

All of our monthly charts are updated with November housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Loudoun counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

The last three months shows sold listings at its lowest level in the last 6 years. Although current average prices are in a seasonal downturn, Fairfax County prices appear to be relatively flat since the summer of 2005. Average prices in Loudoun County dropped about 7 to 8% from the summer of 2005 through the summer of 2006 but appear to be relatively flat since.

With all the news about foreclosure rates, especially in Loudoun County, it remains to be seen how these come back on the market early in 2008 and what price pressures will result. It is also unknown how the administration's recent deal with lenders to forestall more foreclosures will impact local market conditions going into 2008.

Comment on November Housing Market Data Updates. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

November 13, 2007

All of the monthly charts were updated this morning with October data for Loudoun and Fairfax counties. Check the list of charts under the Market Conditions topic.

The public accessible tables can be found on the MRIS Reports and Statistics Website pages. The October NVAR Market Reports are also available.

Comment on Loudoun and Fairfax County Monthly Charts. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

October 15, 2007

The monthly charts (Fairfax and Loudoun) are updated today with September MLS data (look for the charts under Topics-->>Market Conditions). There is no good news with one exception: Loudoun average price actually increased 5% over August. Go figure...in fact, Fairfax average price took a big drop. Both Fairfax and Loudoun are showing total sales significantly down from last month. September is generally a slow month. Keep watching.

History does not necessarily repeat itself. What is interesting is that the inventory is remaining constant as opposed to last year at this time when it started a steep decline into the winter months. The decline last year was primarily do to withdrawals from the market. Although withdrawals are up, they are not as high as last year. You can see these trends on the Daily Market Watch (now called Weekly). Check out the links on the Front Page top-center.

It has been a long dry summer in the DC metro area. Looks like the real estate draught continues into the winter and beyond. I am now thinking we need to dissipate the short sale and foreclosure inventory before we see any turn around at all. Odd...last year at this time I was saying the same thing about investor dumping.

It is still a good time to be a buyer.

Comment on Monthly Charts Updated with September Data. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News

September 11, 2007

The chart showing Loudoun Single Family homes less than $1,000,000 is updated with August data. August prices remained relatively flat month to month. Average "original list price" is about at the average assessed value. The average "net sold price" (sold price minus subsidy) is 7% lower than the average "original list price."

Comment on Loudoun Single Family Trends | August Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

July 3, 2007

The Loudoun Single Family Detached Home Prices chart is updated with June, 2007 sold data. Average price is up 2% from May. Of specific note is the sold price to assessed value ratio. On average for June, homes sold at 95% of the assessed value. The average seller subsidy is running at about $7,000. Net-net: homes in Loudoun County are selling for about 93.5% of assessed value.

From the Loudoun Daily Market Watch, we see listing activity declining, withdrawals rising and sold properties remaining constant at about 400 per month. If this trend continues, inventory should start decreasing again.

The real question prompted by this data analysis: What factors are causing prices to remain as high as they are with selling pressures in a buyer's market? The real answer is somewhat elusive. Is it sellers holding that firm on price? Is it the mix of higher priced homes becoming more affordable? What is the real year over year price change?

One of our readers, R. Timm, suggested an approach to try to normalize average sold values by the average assessed value. Assuming average assessments are flat 2006 to 2007, we performed these calculations and plotted the results on the following chart. Looking at June 2007, sold prices have dropped by as mush as 28 to 30% year over year this month. Our biggest problem with this approach is two fold: 1) assessed values are not always accurate and 2) homes sold in the first half of the year most likely had 2005 assessed values in the listing when listed. The latter explains the slow rise in average assessed value the first few months of 2006. It would be a significant manual research project to obtain the true assessed value from county records for each of the homes in the sample period.


R. suggested another approach using above grade finished square feet as the normalizing factor and, in fact, performed those calculations for me. Rational here is that square footage is a significant factor in home value (as is age and size of lot). It shows a May year over year decline in the 15% range. This seems much more reasonable. I haven't had time to generate the flash graph but, here's a picture of R.'s result.



Thanks R.!

Comment on Loudoun single family prices holding steady. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

June 12, 2007

Loudoun Buyer Intensity
Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market) Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market) Gray Bars: Balanced Market
[click for more detail]

Market commentary for Loudoun County, Virginia. Headings are links to historical charts.

INVENTORY:
Inventory of homes for sale are are up slightly to 3,713 in May from 3,501 in April. New contracts are also up slightly to 498 properties. Inventory absorption rate (new contracts / total active inventory) remains a low 13%. Actual closings (sold) were down by 10 homes.

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION:
Average home price appreciation is down about 5% for the calendar year. Prices are showing some volatility month to month in the +/- 10% range. This is most likely due to the price mix of homes being sold.

DAYS ON MARKET:
Average time it takes to sell is 111 days, down 3 days from last month. As of today (June 12), days on market for re-sale properties is 113 days (see Loudoun Daily Market Watch).

SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
This ratio remains in the 94.5% range. Successful sellers that lowered their price are still giving buyers another 2 to 3% during negotiations (plus seller subsidies that are not "officially" reported).

NEW CONSTRUCTION:
Data not yet available.Sales of new construction remains in the doldrums. Huge incentives, price reductions, guaranteed home sale to get sellers to the closing table, and increasing incentives to agents bringing qualified buyers. For buyers: finished basements...sun rooms...closing costs...mortgage payments for the first year.

Comment on Loudoun County Real Estate Activity May 2007. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

June 4, 2007

The Loudoun Single Family Detached Home Prices chart is updated with May, 2007 sold data. There is very little change from April. Of specific note is the sold price to assessed value ratio. On average, homes are now selling at 93% of the assessed value. The average seller subsidy is running at about $8,000. Net-net: homes in Loudoun County are selling for about 91.5% of assessed value. This is the spring surge that looks like a flat basketball...I mean flat. No bounce and no drastic drop in price. In fact, we are selling at about 91% of May, 2006 values.

From the Loudoun Daily Market Watch, we see listing activity leveling, withdrawals rising and sold properties remaining constant at about 400 per month. If this trend continues, inventory should start decreasing again.

Comment on No real estate bubble bursting here; just a simple market adjustment. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News

May 13, 2007

Loudoun Buyer Intensity
Red Bars: HOT (Sellers Market) Blue Bars: COLD (Buyers Market) Gray Bars: Balanced Market
[click for more detail]

Market commentary for Loudoun County, Virginia. Headings are links to historical charts.

INVENTORY:
Inventory of homes for sale are rising again, to 3,501 in April from 3,254 in March. New contracts are down 10% from last month. Inventory absorption rate (new contracts / total active inventory) remains a low 15%, down slightly from March. Actual closings (sold) are only up by 27 homes.

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION:
Average appreciation is down nearly 3% from March. The median price is also down month to month.

DAYS ON MARKET:
Average time it takes to sell is 114 days, down 15 days from last month. As of today (May 13), days on market for re-sale properties is 114 days (see Loudoun Daily Market Watch).

SOLD TO LIST PRICE RATIO:
The "negotiated" ratio is up 0.5 percentage points to 94.5%. Successful sellers that lowered their price are still giving buyers another 3 to 4% during negotiations (plus seller subsidies that are not "officially" reported).

NEW CONSTRUCTION:
Data not yet available.Sales of new construction remains in the doldrums. Huge incentives, price reductions, guaranteed home sale to get sellers to the closing table, and increasing incentives to agents bringing qualified buyers. For buyers: finished basements...sun rooms...closing costs...mortgage payments for the first year.

Comment on Loudoun County Real Estate Activity April 2007. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Loudoun County Market News