Inside Prince William County Market News

Real Estate by the numbers for prince William County, Virginia.
There are 5 articles written on this subject. The most recent 10 are listed here:

December 2007 Housing Market Update November Housing Market Data Updates Prince William Single Family Trends | August Update Home sale distribution by price and days on market Prince William County added to Daily Market Watch

You will find a complete Index of Articles by Category and by Month in the Archives.

January 16, 2008

All of our monthly charts are updated with December housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

Trend lines were added to the Fairfax and Loudoun price charts showing downward direction from early 2005 to current. Loudoun shows a rate of decline of about $30,000 per year and Fairfax shows a corresponding declining rate of about $8,000 per year.

We can gain insight by looking at averages but there are inherent issues with averaging. What we don't know is how the mix of properties sold is changing. This fact is a bit hard to get but from anecdotal observations we know that the higher end homes (above $800,000) are selling at a significanly slower rate than those less than $800,000.

For example, from the December MRIS tables for Loudoun County we find the following:

Of the 328 mark as sold properties ...
Attached: 118 sold with 987 active or a 12% absorption rate
Detached: 168 sold with 1789 active or a 9% absorption rate
Condos/Rent: 42 sold with 436 active for a 10% absorption rate
... and then ...
High $ homes: 16 sold with 432 active for a 4% absorption rate (above $800,000)

From the same table we see that total average sold price is down 8% compared to 2006. What is interesting is that the high end townhouses (4+ bedrooms) are down almost 27% and the lower end single family homes (less than 3 bedrooms) are down 28%.

The "sweet spot" for TH resales appears to be evenly distributed in the $300,000 to $500,000 range while single family detached is evenly distributed in the $450,000 to $800,000 range. It appears buyers in the $400,000 to $500,000 are opting for the single family over a TH.

So, what does all this mean? The Loudoun market has definitely shifted out of McMansions. As financing jumbo loans get more difficult, builders lowering new home prices and a high number of "distressed sales" coming on the market this spring, downward pressure on prices for 2008 is anticipated. Is it a good time to buy? My answer is yes if you are buying for the long term and can weather the storm that is expected to last through 2009.

Comment on December 2007 Housing Market Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

December 12, 2007

All of our monthly charts are updated with November housing data for Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Loudoun counties). See Market Conditions under Topics. Additional detail can be found at:

Metropolotan Regional Information System (MRIS) and
Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS@reg; (NVAR)

The last three months shows sold listings at its lowest level in the last 6 years. Although current average prices are in a seasonal downturn, Fairfax County prices appear to be relatively flat since the summer of 2005. Average prices in Loudoun County dropped about 7 to 8% from the summer of 2005 through the summer of 2006 but appear to be relatively flat since.

With all the news about foreclosure rates, especially in Loudoun County, it remains to be seen how these come back on the market early in 2008 and what price pressures will result. It is also unknown how the administration's recent deal with lenders to forestall more foreclosures will impact local market conditions going into 2008.

Comment on November Housing Market Data Updates. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

September 11, 2007

The chart showing Prince William Single Family homes less than $1,000,000 is updated with August data. The 3% uptick we saw in July reversed itself in August. The gap between "original list price" and "net sold price" is a little over 10%. The Prince William County market has been the hardest hit of the big three with extremely sluggish activity. Average prices are down 6% from August of last year. Homes are currently selling for about 90% of assessed value.

Comment on Prince William Single Family Trends | August Update. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Prince William County Market News

December 18, 2006

A recent commenter raised the question of how a "basket of homes" might effect the average sale prices we report in charts and graphs. For example, it only takes a few ultra expensive home sales to distort the average sale price (higher). Being the curious investigator I am, I pulled the following reports from the MLS that show the distribution of price as well as days on market for various home types. The period covered is December 16th through December 15th.

Fairfax County:	Loudoun County:	Prince William County:
All Property Types Condominiums Detached Single Family Townhouses	All Property Types Condominiums Detached Single Family Townhouses	All Property Types Condominiums Detached Single Family Townhouses

Comment on Home sale distribution by price and days on market. Follow this article is off. More articles like this one filed in: Fairfax County Market News , Loudoun County Market News , Prince William County Market News

December 14, 2006

ANNOUNCEMENT:
Prince William County, Virginia, one of the largest counties in Northern Virginia and a magnet for homeowners outside the Washington Metro area and the beltway, is added to the Daily Market Watch. Only the tables are implemented as of this date with charts to come soon. Charts implemented December 13, 2006 at Prince William Daily Market Watch.

Initial Observations:

• Active Inventory is higher than Loudoun County
• Average Days on market (domp) is slightly lower than Loudoun
• Average sold price is about $100,000 less (more affordable?)
• The absorption rate is lower than Loudoun and Fairfax indicating greater weakness
• Buyer Intensity is also more negative

All criteria for extracting data is the same as Fairfax and Loudoun counties.

Other Changes:
The LIST PRICE is added to each data category. I will eventually have these charted as well (as time and coding expertise permits). I spent the better part of this morning and afternoon getting the above additions debugged to display properly. Sorry for the delay.

Enjoy!

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